According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the total grain production in China is expected to reach a record high of 714.9 million tons by 2025, an increase of 1.2% compared to 2024. The corn production is expected to be 301.2 million tons, the rice production is expected to be 209 million tons, and the wheat production is expected to be 140.1 million tons.

The article shows that China's corn production is expected to reach 301.2 million tons by 2025, a year-on-year increase (based on a total grain growth of 1.2%). The increase in supply will lead to pressure on spot prices, which is bearish on the market. Based on futures data, the main corn contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (such as the closing price of 2601 at 2,228 RMB/ton, down 3 points) shows a recent downward trend in prices. The decrease in holdings reflects an increased bearish sentiment in the market, further strengthening downward pressure on futures prices.

As a downstream derivative product of corn, an increase in corn supply will reduce raw material costs, leading to a decrease in spot production costs of corn starch, which in turn will lower spot prices and negatively impact the market. Analyzing the transmission effect of corn production growth on the industrial chain, the expectation of oversupply suppresses market optimism.

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