Market sources indicate that multiple Asian buyers, traders, and suppliers have recently confirmed a structural shift in the global polybutadiene rubber (PBR) trade landscape. As downstream tire manufacturers relocate production to Southeast Asia, China has transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter of PBR.

Wang Fangfang, Deputy Director of S&P Global Commodity Insights' China C4 & Elastomers business, stated: “China's transition to a net exporter of PBR creates new market opportunities. Strategic investments in emerging markets—particularly Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa—are expected to reduce operational costs and strengthen regional footprints.”

Customs data reveals that from January to August 2025, China imported 176,079 tons of PBR, falling below its export volume of 215,369 tons during the same period. In the preceding years of 2023 and 2024, China remained a net importer of PBR, with net imports totaling 75,493 tons and 36,044 tons respectively.

It is reported that China's PBR demand is projected to rise to 1.14 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, aligning with tire production growth. S&P data shows China's passenger car tire output increased by 4% to 460 million units from January to September. Asian traders note that PBR offers greater price competitiveness compared to natural rubber, stimulating tire production demand.

Platts data indicates that in the second quarter of 2025, Asian PBR prices had already fallen below natural rubber prices. The average price of PBR in Northeast Asia was $1,962 per ton in the first half of the year, dropping to $1,555 per ton in the second quarter and further declining to $1,518 per ton in the third quarter. During the same period, the average price of standard natural rubber (TSR) in Southeast Asia was $1,982 per ton in Q1, $1,689 per ton in Q2, and $1,698 per ton in Q3.

On the supply side, China's BR production surged over 25% year-on-year to 1.023 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by an additional 243,000 tons/year of capacity added that year. The industry focus has shifted toward high-performance, high-value-added products, particularly rare earth PBR (neodymium-based) and low-cis PBR (lithium-based) rubber. Manufacturers can flexibly switch production processes, enabling line conversions between nickel-based/rare earth PBR and low-cis PBR/solvent-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber (S-SBR).

However, S&P forecasts that PBR capacity expansion will slow in 2026, with projected new capacity of 41,000 tons/year—significantly lower than 2025's 243,000 tons and 2024's 94,000 tons. Demand for high-performance tires driven by new energy vehicles will continue to support market demand for premium PBR materials.

Chinese traders revealed that unstable supply from major Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has kept Asian natural rubber prices persistently higher than PBR. Platts data shows Northeast Asia's PBR averaged $1,671/ton recently, while Southeast Asia's TSR 20 averaged $1,785/ton. Asian rubber traders indicated that persistent flooding and adverse weather have disrupted natural rubber production in Southeast Asia.

Chinese traders pointed out that the accelerated relocation of Chinese tire manufacturers to Southeast Asian countries like Thailand has directly fueled growth in China's PBR exports. It is reported that the price of PBR exported from China to Southeast Asia is significantly lower than local supply prices. Currently, the United States imposes anti-dumping duties ranging from 20.73% to 116.73% on Chinese tires, while Thai tires face only a 4.52% import tariff. Consequently, Southeast Asia has become the primary source of tire exports to the United States.

Data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) shows that in 2024, the total volume of tire imports into the United States reached 168 million units, with nearly 50% originating from Southeast Asia. Compared to the 2023 total imports of 165 million units, Southeast Asian sources accounted for 47% of the market share.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 9th, the benchmark price of butadiene rubber on SunSirs was 10,770.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.84% ​​compared with the beginning of the month (10,680.00 RMB/ton).

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