Today, the overall domestic coal market presents a weak pattern of "origin, port, and import". The main production areas are offering price reductions and promotions, while port inventories remain high and transactions are sluggish, resulting in a simultaneous weakening of imported coal prices. The strong bearish sentiment in the market and insufficient enthusiasm for terminal procurement have led to a comprehensive shift in the price center of gravity.

Primary production market: Most coal mines continue to lower coal prices by 10-20 RMB/ton to stimulate sales and alleviate inventory pressure. Sales are under pressure and demand support is insufficient.

Port market: The inventory continues to rise (the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea has reached 29.53 million tons), while downstream power plants and other terminal procurement demand are weak and have not significantly increased. The mentality of "buying up, not buying down" is dominant, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Traders are generally pessimistic and bearish, with high shipping pressure, but even if they sell at low prices, it is difficult to facilitate transactions.

Price performance (month on month decline):

4,500 kcal: quoted at 585-595 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton.

5,000 kcal: quoted at 685-695 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton.

5,500 kcal: quoted at 785-795 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton.

Import market: The price of imported coal has weakened synchronously. Compared with domestic coal, it still maintains a certain price advantage (there is still a price difference between domestic and foreign), which creates supplementary and competitive pressure on the domestic market.

Short term forecast: The terminal daily consumption level is the core observation indicator of the current thermal coal market. Until there is a significant increase in daily consumption, it is difficult for the market demand side to provide effective support. It is expected that coal prices will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and the recovery of market confidence depends on substantial improvement in demand.

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