With winter peak demand approaching in Q4, coal prices are expected to remain optimistic. Q4 earnings may outperform Q3. Should prices sustain elevated levels, significant earnings recovery potential remains for 2026.
The deceleration in coal import volume continues, while import prices rise.
Regarding import volume, the cumulative growth rate for January-October reached -11.0%, indicating ongoing contraction in total coal imports. Month-on-month import growth remained negative for eight consecutive months, though the pace of decline has steadily slowed. October imports fell 9.75% year-on-year and 9.26% month-on-month. By coal type, all four major categories showed month-on-month declines, with thermal coal and lignite experiencing significant reductions. The decrease in thermal coal imports was primarily due to reduced volumes from Mongolia and Indonesia; coking coal imports fell mainly from Mongolia; lignite imports dropped largely from Indonesia; and anthracite imports decreased primarily from Russia. Regarding prices, the average import price for all coal types in October reached $71 per ton, maintaining a year-on-year decline trend while increasing by $3.65 per ton month-on-month. By coal type, import prices for all varieties showed significant year-on-year decreases, with all coal types experiencing month-on-month price increases in October. Among these, thermal coal and coking coal saw relatively larger month-on-month increases.
Analyzing October's import structure, thermal coal and lignite saw substantial month-on-month declines, primarily reflecting reduced volumes from Mongolia and Indonesia. Mongolia's decrease also impacted coking coal imports. The drop in Mongolian coal exports to China stemmed from transportation constraints and domestic production issues. On one hand, the closure of China-Mongolia border crossings for seven days during China's National Day holiday directly reduced effective customs clearance days. On the other hand, Mongolia's October political turmoil over the prime minister's dismissal—though later vetoed by the president—caused key coal enterprises like Tavan Tolgoi to adopt a wait-and-see approach, delaying the signing of long-term transportation agreements with China. Additionally, production declined in October due to factors like stripping difficulties at Mongolian coal mines. Regarding Indonesia, the rainy season in October impacted production, causing supply contraction that pushed up prices for Indonesian low-calorie coal. Meanwhile, Chinese power plants prioritized purchasing domestically contracted coal to fulfill long-term agreement obligations, leading to reduced demand for Indonesian coal. Should weather conditions exceed expectations, there remains potential for increased imports of Indonesian coal.
Monitor the possibility of renewed growth in Mongolian coal imports
On November 18, 2025, during a meeting in Moscow with China's Premier, Mongolia's Prime Minister reaffirmed the goal of “exporting 100 million tons of coal to China.” Considering that Mongolia's coal exports to China reached 69.68 million tons in the first ten months of 2025, annualized at 83.62 million tons, the target of 100 million tons remains distant. Given capacity expansion and market conditions, this target may still serve as a guideline for 2026, though achieving it in that year presents certain challenges.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 5th, the benchmark price of thermal coal from SunSirs was 811.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the beginning of the month (821.25 RMB/ton).
Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：
Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).
If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
