Price trend:

According to the SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, domestic polyester staple fiber prices fluctuated and weakened slightly. As of November 27th, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,296 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to the beginning of the month.

Market Analysis

Despite a new round of production increases by OPEC+, the crude oil market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply.  Regional tensions had eased somewhat, and coupled with weaker US demand and the negative impact of US tariffs on the global economy and demand expectations, international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined. As of November 26th, the settlement price for the January WTI crude oil futures contract was $58.65 per barrel, and the settlement price for the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.54 per barrel.

In November, the domestic PTA market experienced a slight upward trend, followed by a period of consolidation in the latter half of the month. As of November 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,628 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.86% compared to the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, short-term PTA processing fees remained relatively low, and inventory levels remained low.  At the end of the month, Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million-ton PTA plant restarted, but Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million-ton plant was shut down, and some other plants continued maintenance, resulting in a continued overall decrease in domestic supply, with the industry operating rate at 73%. Furthermore, with the lifting of BIS restrictions, mainstream suppliers significantly increased exports, tightening spot market liquidity.

Downstream yarn buyers were mostly in a wait-and-see mode, showing only moderate enthusiasm for purchasing polyester staple fiber and maintaining only essential purchases. In the downstream weaving sector, as winter clothing orders had been largely fulfilled, demand was subdued, and both domestic and international purchasing rhythms were gradually slowing down. There was insufficient momentum for new orders. At the end of the month, the overall operating rate of weaving enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66%, and some weaving companies still planned further production cuts.

Market Forecast:

According to analysts at SunSirs, the instability in the geopolitical situation will increase the risk of rising oil prices on the cost side, potentially supporting oil prices. Supply is expected to increase slightly, but supply and demand will remain in a tight balance, which is positive for PTA. However, terminal demand is entering a slack season, and there is insufficient momentum for further price increases. Furthermore, there are many external unstable factors, leading to a stalemate in commodity price trends. Therefore, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate and adjust downwards in November.

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