Price trend:

Starting from last Tuesday, ferrosilicon futures prices fluctuated downwards, with prices gradually easing. Increased purchasing activity from some buyers negatively impacted factory shipments. Furthermore, actual demand remained slow to pick up. Major steel mills had completed their ferrosilicon tenders, and retail demand was generally weak. December ferrosilicon tenders had not yet fully commenced. Additionally, news of production cuts or shutdowns at some steel mills continued to negatively affect the ferrosilicon and other raw material markets. Overall, supply remained relatively ample, putting continued pressure on ferrosilicon prices, with some actual transaction prices adjusting. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, on November 21st, the market price for ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size/mm: natural lumps) in Ningxia was 5,100-5,250 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,128 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.24% compared to last Monday.

Influencing Factors

Raw Material Semi-coke Market:

Last week, the national semi-coke market remained generally stable, with most companies maintaining their prices. A few companies with better performance indicators saw smooth sales and raised their prices by 10 RMB/ton, supported by costs. As of November 21st, the Shenmu market saw medium-grade semi-coke priced at 850-920 RMB/ton, small-grade semi-coke at 800-850 RMB/ton, and coke powder at 530-630 RMB/ton.

Operating Status

As of November 21, most ferrosilicon producers were operating normally, with overall operating rates at a high level. As of November 20, the national operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 33.81%, a decrease of 1.03% compared to the previous week; the average daily output was 15,470 tons, a decrease of 0.77% (120 tons) compared to the previous week. Cost support remained, and the possibility of a significant increase in production was not high.

Downstream Situation

Steel mill losses had narrowed, and production cuts had also decreased. Steel mill inventories were low, and November steel tenders had largely concluded, with traders not actively purchasing. Latest steel tender: On November 17th, a Yunnan steel mill tendered ferrosilicon at 5,770 RMB/ton, for 900 tons, with payment terms of 60% cash + 20% commercial acceptance for six months + 20% bank acceptance for six months, including tax, delivered to the factory.

Market outlook

With steel tenders approaching in December, there is expected to be some increased demand in the near term, potentially improving market sentiment regarding prices. If steel mills replenish their inventories through December tenders and traders enter the market, speculative activity at lower prices may become active. However, considering seasonal factors, consumption is expected to gradually decline later. The production remained high, and with further declines in demand during the off-season, inventory pressure will gradually increase. The domestic ferrosilicon spot market is expected to remain weaker in the short term.

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