According to China Chemical Information Weekly, sulfur prices have shown a pronounced upward trend since 2024, peaking in November 2025 and becoming a focal point of market attention. On November 14, 2025, the domestic 99.5% sulfur CIF price in East China reached 3,860 yuan/ton, marking a 43% month-on-month increase and a 166% year-on-year surge. Overseas contract prices also continued to climb, with some Middle Eastern December cargoes transacted at CIF costs exceeding RMB 4,000/ton, providing strong support for domestic prices. This sharp surge in sulfur prices stems from multiple factors including sustained supply contraction, low inventories, and surging demand from the new energy sector.

Supply Side: High Import Reliance and Concentrated Domestic Capacity

As a vital chemical feedstock, sulfur supply primarily relies on byproducts from petroleum refineries and natural gas processing plants. With global sulfur supply estimated at approximately 80.7 million tons in 2024, China's import dependency approaches 50%. This indicates that stable domestic supply heavily depends on international resource imports. However, the global sulfur market's supply landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years, leading to persistent supply tightness.

On one hand, global sulfur production capacity is highly concentrated, with the Middle East accounting for 32% of global supply. However, its resources tend to favor emerging markets like Indonesia. On the other hand, Russia, traditionally a major sulfur exporter contributing 15-20% of global output, has seen its exports plummet due to production instability at refineries caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

From a capacity distribution perspective, China's sulfur industry exhibits a highly concentrated trend. Sinopec (8.34 million tons), PetroChina (3.68 million tons), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (1.21 million tons) rank as the top three players, collectively accounting for over 70% of national capacity and establishing themselves as dominant market forces.

While facing multiple challenges on the supply side, shifts in demand have also injected new momentum into the sulfur market.

Demand Side: Explosive Growth in New Energy Sector and Solid-State Battery Catalysis

Agriculture (primarily phosphate fertilizers) accounts for over 50% of sulfur's downstream demand structure, with the remainder distributed across sulfuric acid production, caprolactam, titanium dioxide, and new energy sectors. While traditional phosphate fertilizer demand remains resilient, sulfur consumption in the new energy sector has experienced explosive growth, becoming a key driver of sulfur price increases.

In recent years, the rapid expansion of the new energy industry has significantly increased sulfur's application in materials like lithium iron phosphate batteries. Solid-state batteries are considered a key future direction for battery technology. Sulfides serve as critical electrolyte materials for solid-state batteries, with their demand for high-purity sulfur being several times greater than that of traditional lithium batteries. Currently, there are two primary process routes for sulfide solid-state electrolytes: first, sulfur reacts with sulfuric acid and lithium compounds to produce lithium sulfide; second, sulfur is converted into hydrogen sulfide, which then reacts with a lithium source to form high-purity lithium sulfide. Recently, a leading battery manufacturer initiated bidding for a GWh-scale solid-state battery production line, with core equipment models entering mass production. Accelerated technological implementation will propel high-purity sulfur demand from laboratory “kilogram-scale” to industrial “ton-scale” production.

Additionally, Indonesia's nickel-cobalt projects will require over 7 million tons of sulfur between 2025 and 2027. Given that 1 ton of nickel consumes 10 tons of sulfur, this will significantly divert global supply. According to Longzhong Information data, China's downstream sulfur consumption is projected to grow from 18.19 million tons in 2021 to 21.14 million tons by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4%. Structural demand growth in the new energy sector, coupled with rapid development in non-ferrous metal smelting, new energy, and solid-state battery materials, opens vast growth prospects for sulfur demand.

Price Trends Remain Elevated, Potentially Surpassing 5,000 Yuan/MT by 2026

Overall, the sulfur market's supply-demand dynamics are unlikely to improve in the near term. The long-term contraction in supply, persistent tightness in imported resources, and low inventory levels stand in stark contrast to the explosive growth in the new energy sector and accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries on the demand side. Although new refining facilities in the Middle East are expected to come online by 2026, supply constraints are unlikely to ease before these new capacities are deployed.

Some analysts suggest that as the new energy sector continues to expand and solid-state battery technology matures, the sulfur market will remain in a state of tight supply-demand balance for the foreseeable future. This dynamic will not only sustain high sulfur prices but also drive further industry consolidation. Leading enterprises, leveraging their capacity and resource advantages, will continue to steer market development.

Some analysts suggest that as the new energy industry continues to expand and solid-state battery technology matures, the sulfur market will maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the long term. This trend is expected to not only sustain elevated sulfur prices but also drive further industry consolidation. Leading companies will leverage their production capacity and resource advantages to continue steering market development.

Projections indicate that under optimistic scenarios, sulfur prices could surpass 5,000 yuan per ton by 2026. Notably, every 100-yuan increase in the average sulfur price translates to hundreds of millions in additional profits for leading companies. As China's top three sulfur producers, Sinopec, PetroChina, and Rongsheng Petrochemical—with their production capacity advantages and market dominance—will continue to benefit from the industry's robust growth momentum.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, On November 24, the benchmark price of sulfur from SunSirs was 3734.33RMB/ton, an increase of 13.70% compared with the beginning of the month (3284.33RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.