According to the Agricultural Inputs Guide of China Chemical Industry News, the 25th Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Conference, jointly hosted by the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association and the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association on November 6, analyzed shifts in global and domestic fertilizer market supply and demand to guide the healthy development of China's industry.

The conference noted that sulfur prices will remain elevated in the short term.

Global sulfur demand growth accelerated significantly in 2024, while production increases remained limited. Uneven supply fluctuations across regional markets created structural supply tightness. Localized supply-demand imbalances will persist in 2025 with slow supply growth. China's sulfur production will remain largely stable from 2024 to 2025. Sulfuric acid prices remain firm due to declining copper concentrate processing fees, while favorable export prices have boosted coastal acid producers' willingness to export.

Global sulfuric acid prices in 2025 will exhibit pronounced regional divergence. The Northwest European market will experience sharp volatility: driven by Chilean smelter production cuts, prices will surge to a third-quarter peak in the first half of the year. In the second half, prices will decline due to reduced Moroccan import demand and the recovery of European smelting capacity. By October, FOB prices will drop to $85 per ton (all prices quoted in USD/ton), marking a 26% decrease from the beginning of the year. Markets in China, Japan, and South Korea remained firm due to tight copper concentrate supply, with October FOB prices reaching $75, a 50% year-on-year increase. Domestic prices also trended upward.

According to National Bureau of Statistics data, sulfuric acid prices rose from RMB 470 to 625 between January and October, a 36% increase. In August, export FOB prices peaked at $96, stimulating export growth.

From the supply side, the increase in sulfuric acid production in 2025 will primarily come from sulfuric acid derived from sulfur and smelter acid. China's increased consumption of copper concentrate has boosted by-product smelter acid output.

Indonesia's Adani copper project will produce 300,000 tons of sulfuric acid annually in 2025, rising to 1.1 million tons in 2026.

India's PPL phosphate fertilizer project adds 500,000 tons of sulfuric acid capacity.

Europe's total sulfuric acid output is projected to reach 19 million tons, with smelter acid accounting for 8.4 million tons.

On the demand side, global sulfuric acid consumption reached 315.8 million tons. Indonesia's nickel sulfate projects added 4 million tons of demand, Morocco's phosphate fertilizer demand increased by 1.5 million tons, U.S. demand reached 29.88 million tons, and Brazil's phosphate fertilizer demand also rose. Only Chile's copper industry saw a slight decline in demand.

Regarding trade flows, global sulfuric acid exports are projected to decline to 22.76 million tons in 2025, accounting for 7.2% of total production. China's exports are expected to rise to 4.6 million tons, with the first three quarters reaching 3.48 million tons—a 106% year-on-year increase. Exports to Saudi Arabia reached 480,000 tons (up 334% YoY), Morocco 560,000 tons (up 118% year-on-year), with 72% of exports being monoammonium phosphate. European exports fell to 5.6 million tons, while Japan and South Korea saw a combined decrease of 500,000 tons.

In the first half of 2026, sulfuric acid prices are expected to continue rising due to high sulfur costs. In the second half, prices are likely to stabilize as global purchasing power improves, supply tensions ease in Europe and Southeast Asia, and new capacity comes online in India and Indonesia.

Sulfur prices surged dramatically in 2025, with Middle East FOB prices climbing from $165 at year-start to $405 in October—a 145% increase. China's market price rose concurrently to $415, marking a 114% jump. Analysis indicates this surge primarily resulted from demand growth and supply-demand mismatches.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Turkmenistan will increase production in 2025. However, Russia's output will drop to 4.3 million tons due to refinery attacks and export bans before December, with recovery unlikely in the first half of 2026. Currently, Middle East production remains stable at 22.3 million tons, projected to increase by 2.1 million tons in 2026. China's output will rise by 600,000 tons to 11.3 million tons,

while North America and the CIS regions maintain stable production. Regarding inventories, Kazakhstan will complete destocking in the first half of 2025. Saudi Arabia and Canada will accelerate destocking amid high prices, while China's port inventories will also decline to 2.25 million tons,resulting in an inverted price spread between port and import prices.

Regarding imports and exports, global sulfur imports will reach 39.83 million tons in 2025,accounting for 54% of demand. Indonesia's imports will increase to 4.7 million tons,China's imports will remain stable at 9.7 million tons, Brazil's imports will stabilize at 2.4 million tons,and India's imports from January to July will rise to 1.4 million tons.

It is projected that sulfur prices will remain elevated in the short term throughout 2026.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 11, the benchmark price of sulfur from SunSirs was 3337.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.62% compared with the beginning of the month (3284.33 RMB /ton).

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