The peak demand season in summer has ended, increasing the global supply - demand pressure on crude oil and causing a sharp rise in floating storage at sea. In October, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, and recently, Russia's crude oil exports have declined. If the sanctions continue, Russia's crude oil production faces the risk of decline. However, as "OPEC+" continues to increase production in December and the crude oil production of non - OPEC countries reaches a record high for the same period, the reduction in Russian crude oil is difficult to change the global oversupply situation of crude oil. It is expected that oil prices will remain under pressure in the fourth quarter. Supported by the Dubai market and crude oil freight rates, SC crude oil is expected to perform better than the Brent market.

■ Russian crude oil exports start to decline

Recently, due to the sanctions imposed by the United States on two major Russian oil producers, Iraq's state oil marketing organization, SOMO, has canceled three batches of crude oil shipments from Lukoil, originally scheduled for November. Two Indian state-owned companies, HPCL and MRPL, have purchased approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil from the United States and the Middle East, including Abu Dhabi's Murban crude oil, through bidding. Recently, there have been disruptions in the logistics of Russian crude oil to India. Preliminary export data shows that Russian crude oil exports to India decreased by 5% in October compared to the previous month, but they are still about 10% higher than last year. The Reliance Group, MRPL, and HMEL Group have stopped purchasing Russian crude oil, and about 800,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil supplies are currently at risk.

■"OPEC+" sets production plan

On November 2, "OPEC+" announced that it would slightly increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend the plan to further increase production in the first quarter of 2026. The member states of "OPEC+" will hold the next meeting on November 30 to discuss the production level for 2026. At that time, the organization will assess the actual impact of the production increase suspension on the market, the global demand situation, and the development of the geopolitical situation. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price for December shipments to Asia. The price of Arabian Light crude oil for Asia has been reduced by $1.2 per barrel, with a premium of $1 per barrel over the average price of Oman/Dubai crude oil. In addition, the price of medium and heavy crude oil has been reduced by $1.4 per barrel.

■ Strong production expectations in the Americas

Since the beginning of the year, Brazil's production has been continuously setting new historical records. According to data from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), in September, Brazil's crude oil production was 3.99 million barrels per day (b/d), a decrease of 10,000 b/d compared to the previous month and an increase of 410,000 b/d year-on-year. In October, Brazil's crude oil export volume reached 2.324 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase of 10% compared to the previous month and an increase of 52% year-on-year. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast, Brazil's crude oil production will reach 3.8 million b/d in 2025, with an average growth of 390,000 b/d, and it will continue to grow by 240,000 b/d in 2026. At the end of September, the seventh floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel, P-78, of the Buzio field in Brazil was ready, and it is expected to officially start producing crude oil at the end of the year.

Guyana's September crude oil production approached 800,000 b/d, and the October crude oil export volume reached a historical high of 8.8 million barrels per day. Currently, Guyana has four FPSOs in operation, with a combined capacity of 9 million barrels per day. Three more FPSOs are expected to come online, with expected production in the fourth quarter of 2026, 2028, and 2029, and the total capacity is expected to reach 16 million barrels per day by 2030. According to industry forecasts, by 2030, oil from Brazil's offshore, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina's Camur shale region will become a key source of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supplies.

■Global crude surplus pattern is hard to change

The summer demand peak has ended, and the global supply and demand surplus has intensified. In September, the global floating crude oil库存 increased by about 100 million barrels, and in October, it further increased by about 30 million barrels, reaching a total of 1.33 billion barrels. The main factors behind this are the increase in transport distance, domestic restocking, and port congestion. Since OPEC will continue to increase production in December, and non-OPEC (US, Brazil, Guyana, etc.) production has reached a historical high, the global crude oil supply surplus is expected to be significant in the fourth quarter, even if Russian production declines, it is difficult to change the global surplus situation. In the fourth quarter, the monthly spread of the Dubai market is supported by factors such as Indian purchases, combined with the recent significant increase in crude oil freight rates, the domestic SC crude oil is more supported than布伦特 crude oil.

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