In November, the domestic potash market witnessed another wave of price increases.

Earlier this year, the potash market also experienced a surge driven by speculative trading. In response, on July 16, seven major domestic potash importers—including China National Agricultural Materials Group Co., Ltd. and Sinochem Fertilizer Co., Ltd.—issued a “Joint Initiative to Increase Potash Supply, Reduce Prices, and Promote the Swift Return of Fertilizer Prices to Reasonable Levels.” This initiative yielded partial results: First, the upward momentum of domestic potash prices was curbed. Second, port inventories decreased from over 2 million tons in mid-July to over 1.5 million tons by the end of September. This indicates that relevant enterprises did not hold back sales and increased their efforts to release stockpiles. The downside is that due to limited supply, potassium chloride prices have effectively formed a dual-track system ranging from low to high (3,150–3,450 RMB/ton).

In October, delayed autumn planting and stagnant compound fertilizer sales led to a broad decline in potash prices, with mainstream prices converging toward the lower end of the dual-track range.

Entering November, potash prices resumed an upward trajectory. This round of price increases resulted from multiple domestic and international factors:

First, potash imports from January to October this year decreased by nearly 300,000 tons year-on-year;

Second, although port inventories rebounded from over 1.5 million tons at the end of September to over 2.2 million tons recently, they remain at historically low levels;

Third, both domestic potash production volume and grade declined, with Qinghai Salt Lake increasingly producing 57% potassium chloride;

Fourth, Northeast China entered the peak period for compound fertilizer production;

Fifth, Lithuania and Poland recently closed road transit routes with Belarus, potentially disrupting potash shipments;

Sixth, Indonesia's planned implementation of the B50 biodiesel program by 2026 may stimulate potash demand growth. This year, Indonesia and Malaysia both saw approximately 40% year-on-year increases in potash imports, becoming the most significant support for international potash prices.

Recently, major international potash producers have begun signaling positive outlooks. For instance, Nutrien forecasts a tight global potash supply by 2026, creating a bullish atmosphere.

However, amid record profits in the potash sector and declining global agricultural commodity prices, the current surge in potash prices is unsustainable. While the former encourages full utilization of potash production capacity, the latter strains farmers' affordability and dampens potash demand. Therefore, the medium-term outlook for potash prices is not optimistic.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 21, the benchmark price of caprolactam on SunSirs was 8,643.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.80% compared with the beginning of the month (8,326.67 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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