According to the Agricultural Inputs Guide of China Chemical Industry News, the 25th Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Conference, jointly hosted by the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association and the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association on November 6, analyzed shifts in global and domestic fertilizer market supply and demand to guide healthy industry development.
The conference noted that potassium fertilizer market prices are stable with adjustments.
Potassium fertilizer markets exhibit pronounced quarterly fluctuations. The first quarter saw supply contraction and sharp price surges. Belarusian Potash Company reduced output by 1 million tons, while Russia's Uralkali cut international market supply. This coincided with concentrated demand for spring plowing preparations, triggering panic buying.
Domestic port prices for 62% potassium chloride surged from RMB2,550 to 3,400 , while large-grain potash in Northeast China jumped by RMB1,000 . In March, the state launched competitive auctions of state-reserved potash, releasing a cumulative 1.1 million tons to effectively stabilize prices.
Second-quarter demand declined, resulting in a market characterized by weak demand but low inventory levels without shortages. Following spring plowing, compound fertilizer plants reduced production rates, decreasing potash procurement demand. By May, Mannheim-process potassium sulfate plant utilization rates dipped below 70%. In June, despite China and India signing a major potash contract at $346 per ton, news of Laos' mining policy adjustments and the Israel-Palestine conflict fueled another round of price hikes.
Prices rose then fell in the third quarter amid sustained policy intervention. After reaching an annual peak in July, the government convened a supply-stabilization meeting. Key enterprises implemented guaranteed supply prices, setting 62% white potash at RMB3,150 , creating a dual-track system of “guaranteed supply prices + market prices.” In September, demand weakened as autumn fertilizer stockpiling concluded early, triggering price declines. Monthly imports rebounded to 1.1 million tons.
Regarding imports, 2025 volumes are projected to slightly undercut 2024's 12.63 million tons. Laos emerged as a key source, ranking second among import origins with 1.57 million tons imported from January to September. Domestic supply formed a “domestic production + diversified imports” pattern, with Qinghai and Xinjiang maintaining stable domestic potash fertilizer production capacity around 8.5 million tons.
In 2026, the potash fertilizer market will maintain ample supply-side safeguards, with ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remaining the primary focus. Measures such as reserve releases and price guidance are expected to prevent abnormal market fluctuations. Regarding prices, relative stability is anticipated under balanced supply and demand dynamics coupled with policy regulation. Significant increases or decreases are unlikely, with fluctuations expected to remain moderate.
Overall, the 2026 potash market will continue its pattern of “secure supply, supported demand, and stable prices with moderate adjustments.” The industry should focus on policy trends and inventory changes while responding rationally to market fluctuations.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, On November 10, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) on the business information platform was 3366.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared with the beginning of the month (3400.00 RMB/ton).
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