According to China Chemical Industry News, compound fertilizer prices in China have continued to climb recently, with some regions showing significant upward momentum. The mainstream ex-factory price for 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer (15-15-15) ranges from RMB3,050 to 3,250 per ton.

December traditionally marks the peak season for new-crop corn arrivals, theoretically the month with the most abundant supply. However, this year's complex situation—including farmers holding back sales, low channel inventories, and delayed import arrivals—has collectively created a “price buffer,” keeping corn prices generally firm. Corn procurement prices at Northeast deep-processing enterprises have seen slight increases, with overall market sentiment positive. For wheat, tight local grain stocks combined with traders' temporary reluctance to sell provided bottom support, driving prices higher. Government-backed purchase programs also anchored the market. Overall, rising grain prices have boosted planting enthusiasm at the grassroots level, particularly in Northeast China where compound fertilizer and other fertilizer transactions have recently shown active momentum.

Since the start of 2024, the value trends of key compound fertilizer raw materials—nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium—have diverged. Among nitrogen fertilizers, urea prices have gradually declined amid volatility, currently at their lowest level, projected at RMB36-37 per unit of nitrogen for December 2025. In contrast to 2024, monoammonium phosphate and potassium chloride prices remain elevated with tight supply, becoming key factors influencing compound fertilizer prices during the winter stockpiling period. Domestic potassium chloride prices have maintained stability for an extended period, while imported supplies experienced regional price hikes driven by market sentiment, resulting in firm short-term pricing. For medium-to-long-term raw materials, nitrogen fertilizer prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with potential increases post-Chinese New Year due to demand recovery. Monoammonium phosphate prices will consolidate at elevated levels, and potassium chloride prices will remain stable. Overall, raw material costs continue to underpin compound fertilizer production expenses.

Winter fertilizer stockpiling has progressed to the point where most medium-sized enterprises have ample advance orders. Currently, shipments are concentrated in the Northeast region, while shipments to North China and other southern markets remain moderate. However, as enterprises' pending orders exceed finished product inventory, production and shipping pressures are significant.

Distributors are actively taking delivery of low-priced goods locked in earlier, while maintaining a wait-and-see approach toward higher-priced goods. However, based on raw material cost projections, compound fertilizer manufacturers will continue to hold firm on prices. After a transitional period, market acceptance of higher-priced compound fertilizers will gradually improve.

Overall, the compound fertilizer market currently benefits from multiple supportive factors, and its medium-to-long-term trend is expected to remain elevated.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 12, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) on SunSirs was 3,533.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared with the beginning of the month (3,500.00 RMB/ton).

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Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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