According to Sina Finance, the 15th Five-Year Plan period is projected to see a gradual slowdown in real estate market investment, while infrastructure investment will increasingly prioritize quality and efficiency. These shifts in investment direction are expected to collectively drive a decline in total asphalt market demand, potentially making asphalt demand during the 15th Five-Year Plan period the lowest level among the past three five-year plans.

Projections indicate China's domestic asphalt consumption in 2025 will reach approximately 30.7803 million tons, an increase of 1.8763 million tons (6.49%) compared to 2024. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, asphalt consumption is projected to decline significantly, with an average domestic consumption of 27.05 million tons over the next five years. This compares to an average of 31.79 million tons during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and an estimated average of 31.42 million tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The 15th Five-Year Plan period may thus represent the lowest domestic consumption level among the past three five-year plans. Of course, with the cyclical nature of road construction, China's domestic asphalt demand may follow a pattern of declining first and then increasing.

The two major downstream sectors of China's asphalt market are highway construction and waterproofing applications. Highway construction constitutes a core component of traditional infrastructure, with investment closely tied to local government finances. Waterproofing demand, meanwhile, exhibits a direct correlation with real estate construction area. Consequently, shifts in infrastructure and real estate investment will influence asphalt demand and subsequently impact asphalt prices. Looking at real estate investment and highway infrastructure investment, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China's real estate market development and infrastructure investment are expected to gradually shift from pursuing high-speed growth to pursuing “high-quality development,” leading to a relatively significant decline in total asphalt demand.

Real Estate Bids Farewell to High-Growth Era; “High-Quality Development” Emerges as Primary Goal

Real estate investment not only impacts subsequent construction activity and asphalt demand for waterproofing but also directly influences local governments' revenues from state-owned land use rights transfers. This, in turn, affects local finances and related infrastructure projects.

Infrastructure Investment Gradually Slows; Highway Projects Relatively Weak

Trend-wise, infrastructure investment has shown structural divergence over the past two years: starting in 2024, infrastructure investment exhibits pronounced structural shifts. Investment in areas dominated by central government spending—such as water conservancy management and green energy transition (e.g., solar and wind power)—has surged rapidly. Meanwhile, investment growth in certain traditional urban construction projects led by local governments has been relatively sluggish. This signals China's potential entry into a “post-infrastructure era” prioritizing investment quality and efficiency.

Long-term trends indicate that infrastructure development remains a crucial driver for the economy. China's implementation of a new round of rural road improvement initiatives may generate incremental demand for asphalt. However, this increase in rural road asphalt demand cannot offset the decline in asphalt demand from other road construction projects.

Overall, beyond the new rural road improvement initiative, highway construction during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will likely focus more on optimizing existing networks, expanding congested sections, and completing key corridors. Mileage growth will narrow, with investment concentrating on high-value toll roads like expressways. Although asphalt demand for maintenance will continue to grow alongside the expansion of total highway mileage, it is unlikely to offset the decline in demand for new road construction. Consequently, total asphalt demand is projected to decline.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 19, the benchmark price of asphalt from SunSirs was 3,040.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.69% compared with the beginning of the month (3,223.33 yuan/ton).

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