Price trend:
As shown in the chart above, copper prices rose slightly last week. By the end of the week, spot copper was quoted at 87,301.67 RMB/ton, up 0.88% from the beginning of the week (86,541.67 RMB/ton), up 18.01% from the beginning of the year, and up 18.8% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price chart from SunSirs, copper prices have fallen for four weeks and risen for eight weeks in the past three months, with a slight increase last week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories fell slightly, reaching 136,175 tonnes by the end of the week, a 0.07% increase from the beginning of the week.
Market Analysis
On the macro front: The US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days, had officially ended, boosting investor confidence. However, the rebound in the US dollar index and signs of weakness in Chinese credit growth were putting downward pressure on copper prices. As of November 14, the market estimated a 64% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, with liquidity gradually easing, fueling bullish sentiment in the copper market and pushing copper prices higher.
On the supply side: Frequent disruptions to production at major global mining companies (such as large copper mines in Indonesia, Chile, and Peru) had raised concerns about tightening supply. Furthermore, domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) continued to fluctuate around -$40, further reflecting the tight supply situation and solidifying the bottom support for copper prices.
On the demand side: As of November 14, the market sentiment was sluggish, which was driving price trends, and the copper market had entered its seasonal off-season, with demand expected to weaken.
Market Forecast:
In summary, while the clarification of US policy boosted market confidence, weak demand prospects in China have constrained copper price increases. Coupled with the approaching off-season and weakening demand expectations, copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile but upward trend in the short term.
If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
