Gold prices rose and silver prices hit new highs

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of November 13, 2025, the spot gold market price in the morning session was 957.69 RMB/gram, an increase of 4.25% compared with the spot gold market price of 918.62 RMB/gram at the beginning of the month (November 1).

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the average market price of silver in the morning session on November 13, 2025 was 12,420 RMB/kg, an increase of 8.23% compared to the average market price of silver at the beginning of the month (November 1) of 11,476 RMB/kg, setting a new historical high.

Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends

Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a weak positive correlation in the short term to a significant negative correlation in the long term. On November 13, precious metal prices surged while crude oil prices plummeted.

A comparison of the price trends of precious metals gold and silver over the past year

Looking at the past year, gold and silver have maintained a strong positive correlation. The price changes of gold and silver generally fluctuate in the same direction, and their upward and downward trends are largely synchronized for most of the time. For example, during the upward phase from late October 2024 to April 2025, and during subsequent fluctuations and further upward movements, the trend lines of both were basically in the same direction.

Silver prices hit a new high; domestic and international prices inverted

On November 13, 2025, silver prices reached a new high. In terms of both domestic and international markets, Shanghai silver was more than 400 RMB/kg more expensive than London silver in RMB terms. The recent surge in silver prices highlights its strategic resource status. In November 2025, both China and the United States introduced new policies regarding silver that reflect its strategic resource attributes. China focused on upgrading export controls to ensure resource security, while the United States signaled its support and control by including it in its list of critical minerals. The specific policy details are as follows:

China: The Ministry of Commerce issued Document No. 68 of 2025, upgrading silver to a strategic resource and incorporating it into the national resource security management system at the same level as tungsten and antimony. Export-oriented manufacturing enterprises must meet the following requirements: annual silver production of 80 tons or more in 2024 (40 tons for western regions) and export performance every year from 2022 to 2024; distribution enterprises must have continuous export performance during the same period and pass relevant system certifications. The policy prioritizes supporting enterprises with a complete industrial chain, compliance, and high technology. This move will drive industry resources to concentrate on large enterprises and strengthen China's control over the global silver supply.

Macroeconomic factors drove precious metal prices upward

On November 13, 2025, precious metals surged, primarily driven by a confluence of factors including strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, increased market risk aversion, improved liquidity, and the strategic importance of silver. Specific reasons are as follows:

1. The Federal Reserve's dovish shift led to a comprehensive increase in expectations of rate cuts

Official personnel changes fueled expectations of policy easing: On November 12, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a hawkish figure) suddenly announced his early retirement, leading to market speculation that Trump might appoint a dovish candidate to succeed him. This change further strengthened expectations of an accelerated shift towards easing by the Fed, directly driving up gold and silver prices. Meanwhile, several Fed officials also signaled easing, with Milan suggesting a 50 basis point rate cut in December would be appropriate, and Daly and other officials advocating for remaining open to further rate cuts. Currently, the market predicts a 69.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.

Weak US economic data underscores the necessity of interest rate cuts: Private sector layoffs in the US surged by over 150,000 in October, the highest level for the same period in over 20 years; the previously released October ISM Manufacturing PMI was only 48.7 points, remaining below the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction; and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index also fell to its lowest level since June 2022. This weak economic data reinforces the market's belief that the Federal Reserve needs to boost the economy through interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals such as gold and silver. Simultaneously, US Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest level since November 5th, further paving the way for a rise in precious metal prices.

2. Risk aversion and capital flows provided support

Uncertainty triggered safe-haven demand: While the US government shutdown is likely to be resolved through a temporary funding bill, the previous shutdown has resulted in a lack of key economic data, making market sentiment highly volatile during this "data gap." Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Europe prompted investors to increase their holdings of precious metals to mitigate risk. Furthermore, Bitcoin's decline that day saw some of its outflows flow into the precious metals market, providing additional upward momentum for precious metal prices.

Global central bank gold purchases bolster market confidence: Continued gold buying by central banks worldwide provides long-term support. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for several consecutive months, while Poland and Turkey have also significantly increased their holdings. Data from the World Gold Council shows that most surveyed central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next year. This official gold-buying activity has significantly boosted market confidence in precious metals and provided solid support for prices.

3. Market liquidity is expected to improve, which is beneficial to the valuation of precious metals

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on November 13 to end the government shutdown, and the government is highly likely to reopen. Once the government "opens," the Treasury's general account will release a large amount of funds, which will significantly improve dollar liquidity in the market. In an environment of ample liquidity, funds are more likely to flow into safe-haven assets such as precious metals, while also mitigating market volatility caused by data gaps, further driving up precious metal prices.

4. The strategic importance of silver had been strengthened, driving a related rise in the precious metals sector

Recent policies from both China and the US have further highlighted the strategic value of silver. China has included silver in its export review quota system, while the US has included it in its critical minerals list for the first time. These policies have elevated silver's strategic resource status, enabling it to exhibit an independent and strong upward trend despite the backdrop of macroeconomic easing. As a key precious metal, silver's strong price increase has also driven up prices of other precious metals such as gold and platinum.

Precious Metals Price Forecast in November

Precious metal prices have surged again in the short term, and are expected to exhibit a short-term trend of slightly bullish fluctuations, strong medium-term upward momentum, and a clear long-term upward trend. Specifically, gold is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, while silver is showing a bullish trend and is expected to challenge higher levels.

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