Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of October 29th, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 122,116 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.31% for the month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. The price trend throughout the month was influenced by both policy expectations and the actual supply and demand fundamentals, resulting in overall narrow-range fluctuations.

Indonesia's mining policy adjustment, shortening the validity period of mining quotas from three years to one year, sent a clear signal that the government was strengthening supply control. This policy change triggered expectations of tighter supply in the early post-holiday period, pushing nickel prices up by 1.22%.

Improved international economic and trade relations: Positive progress in the high-level economic and trade dialogue between China and the United States and subsequent consultations effectively alleviated concerns about escalating trade frictions and provided support for market sentiment.

Positive domestic and international economic data: China's GDP maintained a steady growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, and lower-than-expected US CPI data triggered expectations of interest rate cuts, which together constituted a relatively favorable macroeconomic environment.

Analysis review

Supply side: 

Cost support was evident: the Indonesian nickel ore reference price rose by $40.33 per dry tonne month-on-month, reflecting tight nickel ore supply and providing bottom support for nickel prices. The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) shows that the prices of nickel processed products ere stable with a slight increase, in order to maintain nickel price stability.

Significant inventory pressure: LME nickel inventories surged by 20,394 tons to 251,706 tons this month, setting a new record high; SHFE inventories also increased by 6,616 tons to 31,433 tons this month. The oversupply situation was unlikely to change, putting downward pressure on nickel prices.

Import pressure persisted: Ferronickel imports in September increased by 47.60% year-on-year, mainly due to increased supply from Indonesia and Brazil, exacerbating expectations of domestic oversupply.

Demand side:

The stainless steel sector remained weak: the industry was facing a "weak peak season" dilemma, with sluggish transactions and continuously weakening prices. On October 29, the benchmark price of stainless steel on the SunSirs was 12,900 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.19% within the month. Production cuts by many steel mills exacerbated the weakening demand for nickel.

The new energy sector had a positive long-term outlook but faced short-term pressure: In September 2025, the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries decreased by 10% year-on-year, and its market share shrank to 17.5%. The cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries continued to squeeze nickel demand. The reduction of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to slow sales growth. However, breakthroughs in all-solid-state battery technology are expected to drive long-term demand for high-nickel ternary materials, providing potential support for nickel prices.

Market Forecast:

In the short term, nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate: Upside constraints: High global inventories and continuously increasing supply pose the main pressure; Downside support: Rising raw material costs and long-term demand expectations for new energy provide bottom support.

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