Price trend

Last week, hot rolled coil futures saw a steady rise, providing some boost to spot market sentiment. However, due to lower-than-expected end-user demand, upward price momentum was limited, and follow-up transactions were limited. Traders primarily focused on stabilizing prices and accelerating payment collection, with little appetite for tentative price increases. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of October 24th, the average domestic galvanized sheet and coil market price was 4,190 RMB/ton, down 0.12% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review 

Fundamentals: Capacity utilization continued to rise last week, and overall supply pressure was relatively high. In addition, social inventory remained high and was unlikely to decrease. The market will continue to face high pressure to ship goods, which may have a certain impact on prices. According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the overall operating rate of galvanized sheet metal last week was 80.95%; the capacity utilization rate was 63.98%, an increase of 0.37%; the weekly output was 912,600 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons from the previous week; the steel mill inventory was 511,500 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 1.3372 million tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from the previous week; and the total inventory was 1.8487 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week.

Cost: Last week, major steel mills in Shanghai announced settlement policies, with the settlement price for galvanized sheet and coil arriving at the port at 4,180 RMB/ton.

Market sentiment: The overall market was cautious and wait-and-see, with little expectation of a short-term market trend.

Industry dynamics: In mid-October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.58 million tons, an increase of 700,000 tons from the previous ten days, a growth of 4.4%; an increase of 4.21 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 34.0%; an increase of 1.29 million tons from the same ten days of the previous month, a growth of 8.4%; an increase of 1.15 million tons from the same ten days of last year, a growth of 7.5%; an increase of 70,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous year, a growth of 0.4%.

Market outlook

In general, as of October 24, the market demand could not be effectively released, and it was difficult to reduce social inventory. In the absence of a significant reduction in supply in the fourth quarter, the market price may continue to fall. SunSirs predicts that the price of galvanized sheet and coil may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

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