Price trend:

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, from October 20th to 24th (as of 3:00 PM), domestic methanol prices at ports in East China fell from 2,290 RMB/ton to around 2,238 RMB/ton, a 2.27% decrease over the period, a 1.02% decrease month-over-month, and an 8.28% decrease year-over-year. The domestic methanol market fluctuated downward, with weak downstream demand, suppressing market prices.

As of the close of trading on October 24th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract, 2601, opened at 2,294 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,299 RMB/ton, a low of 2,266 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,272 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton, or 0.18%, from the previous trading day's settlement. Trading volume was 603,000 los, with open interest at 1,080,950 lots, a daily increase of 14,570 lots.

Analysis review

On the cost side, with winter storage approaching, some demand from downstream coal producers was providing strong support for coal prices, and this had also been a positive factor for methanol costs.

On the demand side, news of olefins sourcing from overseas had fueled a slight upward shift in market prices, with traditional downstream producers following suit with low-cost replenishment. Most downstream products were influenced by methanol prices, contributing to negative factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, Xindongheng and Guangju New Materials plants underwent maintenance; Sinopec's Great Wall plant reduced production; and Shanxi Coking and Jinmei Huayu plants resumed production. Overall, capacity losses exceeded capacity recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization. Methanol supply provided favorable factors .

On the international market: As of the close of October 23, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $324.5-325.5/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon. The FOB Rotterdam European methanol market closed at 268.5-269.5 euros/ton, down 3 euros/ton.

Market Forecast:

Methanol supply was sufficient, traders had a clear intention to ship, and traditional downstream demand had decreased. SunSirs’ Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be weaker.

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