Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from September 1 to 29 (as of 10:00), the average price of domestic methanol in East China ports rose from 2,253 RMB/ton and then fell to 2,260 RMB/ton. The price rose by 0.30% during the period and fell by 10.26% year-on-year.

Analysis review

The domestic methanol market was generally volatile and weak, with performance diverging between the port and mainland markets. Port imports remained high, and inventory pressures had not been substantially alleviated. The mainland market, however, was experiencing fluctuations driven by supply, demand, and cost factors. Continued pressure on the supply side had led to accumulated inventories. Pre-holiday inventory buildup, coupled with low port prices, had forced downstream companies to purchase on demand, leading to a further decline in the market.

As of the close of trading on September 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract, 2601, opened at 2,360 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,367 RMB/ton, a low of 2,347 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,364 RMB/ton, up 12 RMB/ton, or 0.51%, from the previous trading day's settlement. Trading volume was 170,414 lots, with open interest of 877,555, a daily increase of -7,577.

On the cost side, coal prices had been rebounding since early September after a period of weakness and consolidation. Besides the impact of anti-involution policies, increased non-electricity demand and downstream stockpiling before the National Day and Holidays had provided strong support. Methanol costs provided relatively favorable factors for the market.

On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: Northwest factories had raised their starting prices by 40 RMB/ton, and companies were shipping smoothly. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market had seen mixed results. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market was operating smoothly. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, resulting in mixed results for methanol demand.

On the supply side, coal chemical plants at Jiuding and Hebi in Inner Mongolia were undergoing maintenance; Jinmei Huayu and Xinjiang Xinye ere reducing production; and Shenhua Xinjiang, Guizhou Tianfu, Guizhou Chitianhua, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, and Ningxia Baofeng were resuming production. Overall, capacity recovery outweighed capacity losses, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. Methanol supply provided favorable factors for the market.

As of the close of trading on September 25, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $325.5-326.5/ton, the FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 100-101 cents/gallon, and the FOB Rotterdam European methanol market closed at 280.5-281.5 euros/ton.

Market outlook

After the National Day holiday, the market will simultaneously enter a critical phase of inventory reduction for upstream companies and replenishment for downstream enterprises. Coupled with external factors such as fluctuating freight rates and intensified competition for interregional supply, market volatility will intensify. Methanol analysts of SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.

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