According to data from the European Commission, the overall import volume of EU oilseeds and vegetable oils in 2025/26 is lower than last year, reflecting an expected increase in domestic oilseed production and crushing. As of October 12th, the import volume of soybeans from the 27 EU countries in 2024/25 (starting from July 1st) was approximately 3.41 million tons, a decrease of 7% compared to the same period in 2024/25 and a decrease of 4% a week ago. The import volume of rapeseed is about 1.09 million tons, a decrease of 34% year-on-year, and a decrease of 30% a week ago.

The import of rapeseed in the European Union has decreased by 34% year-on-year, coupled with an increase in domestic production, resulting in a significant increase in supply pressure. It is expected that spot prices will decline due to pressure from oversupply. Considering the recent general decline in the settlement price of rapeseed oil futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (such as the settlement price of contract 2603 at 9,516 RMB/ton, a drop of 54 RMB), reflecting bearish sentiment in the market, futures prices may continue to be weak.

EU soybean imports decreased by 7% year-on-year, and the improvement of domestic crushing capacity will increase local supply. The loose supply in the spot market has suppressed the upward potential of prices. The soybean meal futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (such as the 2601 contract with a settlement price of 2,940 RMB/ton, up 24 RMB) may rise in the short term, but the long-term upward space for futures prices is limited due to the impact of reduced imports.

The increase in rapeseed supply has led to an increase in rapeseed oil production, while import demand has weakened, putting downward pressure on spot prices. The settlement price of rapeseed oil futures contracts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen (such as the settlement price of 2603 contract at 9,516 RMB/ton, down 54 RMB), and the position change is neutral. It is expected that the futures price will be dragged down by supply side bearish sentiment.

The decrease in soybean imports and the increase in crushing may increase the supply of soybean oil, leading to a loosening of spot supply and demand and bearish prices. The soybean oil futures contract on Dalian Commodity Exchange (such as the settlement price of contract 2601 at 8,186 RMB/ton, down 20 RMB) shows that some contracts have weakened, and combined with the expected increase in fundamental supply, futures prices may fluctuate and be bearish.

The growth of rapeseed pressing will increase the yield of rapeseed meal, and the increase in spot supply will suppress prices. Although futures data does not directly cover it, as a by-product of rapeseed oil, its price trend is affected by loose raw material supply, and the degree of bearish sentiment is relatively mild.

The expected increase in soybean crushing growth will increase the supply of soybean meal, limiting the upward trend of spot prices. The main contract for soybean meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (such as the 2601 contract with a settlement price of 2,940 RMB/ton) has recently seen a slight increase, but due to the long-term loose supply caused by reduced imports, futures prices may gradually come under pressure.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.