Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, domestic ethanol prices were 5,467 RMB/ton from October 20 to 24, down 1.77% month-over-month and 1.27% year-over-year. The ethanol market remained weak, with rising corn prices supporting improved costs. However, overall supply continued to increase, with downstream demand primarily focused on replenishing stocks and depleting pre-existing inventories.

Analysis review 

On the cost side, corn prices in producing regions were generally stabilizing after rising. Traders in producing regions were showing little interest in building inventory, maintaining a cautious approach to the market and primarily selling followed the market. The favorable factors on the cost side of ethanol weakened.

On the supply side, Hongzhan Plant No. 4 and Wanli Plant were operating at full capacity, COFCO's Zhaodong plant had resumed operations, and Jilin's Fukang plant had returned to full capacity. SDIC's Jidong, Tieling, and Hailun plants had also resumed operations. Several previously suspended plants recently resumed production, the ethanol supply side provided negative factors for the market.

On the demand side, most merchants were actively shipping, while downstream companies were cautiously waiting and replenishing stocks as needed. The overall trading atmosphere was generally neutral. The demand side of ethanol provided negative factors for the market.

Market outlook

Costs were supporting the market, but with supply increasing, demand still needed to recover. Ethanol analysts at SunSirs predict that the ethanol market will consolidate and weaken in the short term.

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