Aluminum prices strengthened slightly in October 

Aluminum prices strengthened slightly in October. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 17, 2025, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20,960 RMB/ton, up 1.09% from the average price of 20,733.33 RMB/ton on October 1.

The aluminum price has broken through the 20,000 RMB/ton mark and was at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina had fallen from its high level, and as of October 17, the profit per ton of aluminum was in a relatively good position.

Aluminum ingots performed relatively strongly in October, following the overall strength of nonferrous metals, somewhat influenced by macroeconomic factors.

Recent positive factors included:

China-US Game: The US has expanded its high tariffs and imposed additional fees on certain vessels, prompting China to levy special port fees on US vessels. (This does not directly impact aluminum exports, but will affect expectations.)

Favorable policies: Shanghai's smart terminal industry plan and possible consumption stimulus measures (automobiles, home appliances) in Q4 will drive demand for high-end aluminum.

October Fundamentals Overview

On the production capacity side: the operating capacity was 44.165 million tons (stable at a high level), and the new production capacity (280,000 tons in Xinjiang to be started) and the production cuts (Qinghai Chalco to reduce 400,000 tons, Shandong Weichai to reduce 4.31 million tons) basically offset each other.

Cost side: Alumina prices declined (Guangxi market price was 3,030 RMB/ton), prebaked anodes remained stable at 5,055 RMB/ton, and thermal coal rebounded slightly (Q5500 average price is 589 RMB/ton), and the overall cost support was weak.

Changes in aluminum usage structure: the proportion of direct alloying of molten aluminum had increased to 73.9%, the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery was less than 27%, and the phenomenon of "ingot shortage" in the spot market was prominent.

Demand: Demand was diverging, with strong demand for new energy vehicles (passenger car retail penetration rate reached 57.8% in September) and new energy cables (aluminum rod processing fees in Guangdong remained high at 550 RMB/ton); while the building materials sector was weak (Foshan aluminum bar inventory was 62,100 tons and continued to accumulate).

Inventory changes: As of October 16, the social inventory in mainstream domestic regions was 615,000 tons, which basically consumed the accumulated inventory during the holidays and was close to 614,000 tons on September 25. Compared with 634,000 tons on October 9, the social inventory was reduced by 19,000 tons.

Market outlook

Amid expectations of a Fed rate cut, macro sentiment for non-ferrous commodities was relatively stronger, and aluminum prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.