Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber price maintained a slight downward trend in October. As of October 17, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,290 RMB/ton, down 1.96% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

Crude oil prices were declining. As of the 16th, the December settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures contract was $56.99 per barrel, and the December settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.06 per barrel. The crude oil market was impacted by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+ had launched a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market remained concerned about the risk of long-term oversupply, and the crude oil market continued to decline. On the other hand, the easing of the Israeli-Palestinian tension, coupled with weakening US demand and the impact of US tariffs on the global economy and demand expectations, coupled with rising US crude oil inventories and the end of the US oil consumption season, havd led to a gloomy global economic outlook and oil demand, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices.

Insufficient cost support, the commissioning of new plants, and continued weak demand had compounded these negative factors, driving PTA prices downwards since October. As of October 17th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,381 RMB/ton, down 4.65% from the beginning of the month. With both plant maintenance and restarts coexisting and new plants continuing to ramp up capacity, the overall industry operating rate was temporarily around 75%.

On the demand side, cost support was insufficient, leading yarn mills to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. While consumer sentiment was growing in the apparel and home textile sectors with the approaching e-commerce shopping festival, weaving companies were experiencing limited new and follow-up orders, resulting in lukewarm performance. The overall operating rate for chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was around 64%.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that uncertainties such as tariffs remained, dampening sentiment in the commodity market. The combination of loose supply and weak demand in the crude oil market was putting pressure on the oil market, leading to a continued decline in PTA prices. Furthermore, downstream investors remained skeptical of the market, maintaining only limited purchasing activity and focusing on just-in-time purchases. Therefore, the polyester staple fiber market lacks positive drivers, and prices are expected to continue to decline.

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