Macroeconomics

1. [M2] Central Bank: At the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year. Net cash injection in the first three quarters was 761.9 billion yuan.

2. [RMB Loans] Central Bank: At the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 270.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters.

3. [Social Financing Data] Central Bank: According to preliminary statistics, the total social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan at the end of September 2025, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.

The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first three quarters of 2025 was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 851.2 billion yuan; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 94.6 billion yuan in RMB terms, a year-on-year decrease of 111.7 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 57.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 200.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 155.8 billion yuan; undiscounted bank acceptances increased by 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 448.7 billion yuan; net corporate bond financing was 1.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1 billion yuan; net government bond financing was 11.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.28 trillion yuan; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 316.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.3 billion yuan.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan recently stated that recent trade tensions have increased uncertainty about the economic growth outlook, making it even more necessary for policymakers to cut interest rates as soon as possible. While he personally prefers a larger rate cut, considering the median forecast of FOMC members, two more rate cuts this year are a realistic expectation.

5. [Eurozone Industrial Output] Eurozone industrial output fell 1.2% month-on-month in August, compared with an expected 1.6% decline and a previous reading of 0.3% growth.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On October 15, international crude oil futures fell for two consecutive days. The December contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures settled at $57.84 per barrel, down $0.43, or 0.7%. The December contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.91 per barrel, down $0.48, or 0.8%.

2. [Crude Oil] Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on October 15 showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased last week, while distillate inventories decreased. Crude oil inventories increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.99 million barrels, while distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by 4.79 million barrels.

3. [Coking Coal] On October 15th, Mongolian ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price for Mongolian 3# clean coal A11, V20-28, S0.85, G75, and Mt10 was 800 RMB/ton. All 12,800 tons of the bid were sold at 930 RMB/ton, a 5 RMB/ton increase from yesterday. All prices exclude tax. Delivery will be from the Ganqimaodu Port Control Area in China. Delivery is within 90 days of payment, with the final delivery date being January 13, 2026.

4. [Coking Coal] On October 15th, prices for coking coal increased in the Linfen Puxian market. 15,000 tons of low-sulfur fat coal A10.5, S0.5, and G95 were offered at a starting price of 1,450 RMB/ton. The average transaction price was 1,703 RMB/ton, a 223 RMB/ton increase from the previous bid on September 29th. All prices are ex-factory prices, cash inclusive of tax.

5. [Petroleum Coke] On October 15, Qirun Petrochemical quoted petroleum coke 4A at 1,670 RMB/ton, up 20 RMB/ton from the previous trading day. The sulfur content was 4.5, the vanadium content was 850, the delayed coking unit was 1.6 million tons/year, and the daily output was 700 tons.

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