Macroeconomics

1. [PPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and remained unchanged month-on-month. The producer purchase price index (PPI) fell by 3.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. On average from January to September, the PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 3.2%.

2. [CPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% month-on-month. On average from January to September, the CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year.

3. [Automobiles] The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in September, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year-on-year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%, respectively. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units during the same period, with monthly year-on-year growth rates remaining above 10% for five consecutive months.

In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new vehicle sales. From January to September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of total new vehicle sales.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, acknowledging "some signs" of tightening in money markets. Powell said the outlook for inflation and employment appears to have changed little since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, but he emphasized growing signs of slack in the labor market. Powell hinted that even though the government shutdown has severely weakened the Fed's grasp of the economic situation, it is still expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points later this month.

5. [Federal Reserve] Fed Governor Bowman said he continues to expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.

6. [European Central Bank] ECB President Christine Lagarde: We will never say the ECB is done cutting interest rates. Lagarde recently stated that we cannot declare the rate-cutting cycle over yet and are prepared for any eventuality, as even in the current favorable situation, the situation could still change.

7. [IMF Economic Forecast] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global overall inflation will fall from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and further to 3.7% in 2026. Global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026, the same as the previous forecast.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On October 14, international crude oil futures closed lower. The November contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled at $58.70 per barrel, down $0.79, or 1.3%. The December contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $62.39 per barrel, down $0.93, or 1.5%.

2. [Crude Oil] On October 14, a preliminary survey showed that U.S. crude oil inventories were estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely declined. Based on the average estimate of six surveyed institutions, U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have increased by approximately 2.3 million barrels in the week ending October 10. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, are estimated to have fallen by approximately 1.6 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories may have fallen by around 800,000 tons.

3. [Crude Oil] On October 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that Russian crude oil and refined product exports increased by 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.4 million bpd in September. Of this total, crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day, while refined oil exports decreased by 170,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day.

4. [Diesel] In accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution," the "Regulations of Jiangsu Province on the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution," the "Regulations of Jiangsu Province on the Prevention and Control of Exhaust Pollution from Motor Vehicles and Non-road Mobile Machinery," and other laws and regulations, it has been decided to implement traffic restrictions on diesel trucks meeting National III emission standards and below throughout Yizheng City.

5. [LNG] On October 15th, the Datang Fuxin Project, Northeast China's first coal-to-natural gas project and a key national energy strategic project, achieved breakthrough progress, with the first phase of the project fully operational. The project can convert 7.5 million tons of low-quality coal annually, producing 1.33 billion cubic meters of natural gas, with an energy conversion efficiency of 57.59%, an industry-leading level.

6. [LNG] By September 2025, the total volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving and unloading vessels at all LNG receiving terminals nationwide was 19.1 million cubic meters (including unloading capacity only). PetroChina Yong'an, PetroChina Rudong, and CNOOC Dapeng ranked first, second, and third, with respective shares of 16.38%, 8.29%, and 7.84%.

7. [Coking Coal] On October 14th, online auction prices for coking coal in the Luliang market saw mixed results. The starting price for medium-sulfur coking coal A8.5, S1.3, and G75 was 1,180 RMB/ton, with an average transaction price of 1,213 RMB/ton, a 40 RMB/ton increase from the previous period on September 24th. The starting price for high-sulfur lean coking coal A7.5, S2.2, and G65 was 950 RMB/ton, with an average transaction price of 977 RMB/ton, a 23 RMB/ton decrease from the previous period on September 24th.

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