Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, from September 22nd to 28th (as of 3:00 PM), domestic methanol market quotes at ports in East China rose from 2,255 RMB/ton to around 2,265 RMB/ton, a 0.44% increase over the period, a 0.85% month-over-month increase, and an 8.61% year-over-year decrease. Weather and other factors have limited unloading speeds, leading to a reduction in methanol inventories at ports. However, due to recent high import volumes, inventories remained elevated, and downstream buying on dips continued to suppress the market. The overall market performance remained weak, with primarily narrow fluctuations.

As of the close of trading on September 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract, 2601, opened at 2,360 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,367 RMB/ton, a low of 2,347 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,364 RMB/ton, up 12 RMB/ton, or 0.51%, from the previous trading day's settlement. Trading volume was 170,414 lots, with open interest of 877,555, a daily increase of -7,577.

Factors affecting price changes:

On the cost side, downstream pre-holiday inventory replenishment was nearing completion, and coal prices were gradually stabilizing, supporting relatively stable costs. The impact of methanol costs was mixed.

On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: Northwest factories have raised their starting prices by 40 RMB/ton, and companies were shipping smoothly. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market has seen mixed results. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market was operating smoothly. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, resulting in mixed results for methanol demand.

On the supply side, coal chemical plants at Jiuding and Hebi in Inner Mongolia were undergoing maintenance; Jinmei Huayu and Xinjiang Xinye were reducing production; and Shenhua Xinjiang, Guizhou Tianfu, Guizhou Chitianhua, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, and Ningxia Baofeng were resuming production. Overall, capacity recovery outweighed capacity losses, leading to an increase in capacity utilization. Methanol supply provided favorable factors for the market.

On the international market: As of the close of trading on September 25, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $325.5-326.5/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 100-101 cents/gallon. The FOB Rotterdam European methanol market closed at 280.5-281.5 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Market outlook

As pre-holiday stocking coming to a close, traditional downstream demand was weakening. Mainland olefin plants were maintaining high operating rates, supporting prices. Methanol analysts at SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol spot market will consolidate and wait and see.

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