According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from September 19th to 26th, MTBE prices fell from 5,177 RMB/ton to 5,072 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.03% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.86%. The domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and risen. The demand side of the terminal has rebounded, and the activity of MTBE transactions has significantly increased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminal enterprises are gradually carrying out moderate stocking, and the overall trading atmosphere in the MTBE market is good.

In terms of cost and crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise of international oil prices are: the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered potential supply risks, and the US sanctions against some oil producing countries may be upgraded, which will superimpose the decline of the US commercial crude oil inventory and jointly provide oil price support. As of September 25th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract was $68.58 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures first suppressed and then rose, and the refined oil market stopped falling and rebounded. Refineries took advantage of the current pre holiday stocking atmosphere to surround the oil market and pushed up oil prices one after another, but the increase has restrained. Mid to downstream merchants have gradually entered the market to stock up, and the market trading atmosphere is warm. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Shandong Chengtai may have a shutdown plan, and resource supply may decrease slightly. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on September 25th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $6.95/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $673.91-675.91 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $14.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $851.74-852.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $6.91 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $833.77-834.12 per ton (235.42-235.52 cents per gallon).

The future forecast of raw material prices may be subject to sporadic adjustments, and cost pressure still exists. The refined oil market may be weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Before the holiday, manufacturers actively increased inventory and sales, while downstream businesses made moderate purchases. However, as the holiday approached, businesses began to replenish their inventory and entered its final stage. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile.

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