After September, the operating rate of domestic phenol-acetone plants dropped to 65% at one point. Boosted by this, holders' intention to ship at low prices weakened, but port inventories accumulated significantly and spot supplies were still abundant. After the market briefly entered an upward channel, it fell again, with an overall limited decline. As of September 25, the acetone market in East China was deadlocked between 4,500 and 4,550 RMB/ton, and the phenol market in East China was between 6,900 and 6,950 RMB/ton, 6,850 RMB/ton (available for pickup after the holiday).

Market trends of phenol and acetone in East China

In the first quarter of 2025, Shandong Fuyu Chemical added 250,000 tons of phenol acetone production capacity, and in the third quarter, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical added a 650,000-ton phenol acetone unit. According to statistics in September, the domestic phenol acetone production capacity base increased to 10.8 million tons.

In July, 10 phenol-acetone production units underwent maintenance in China, affecting a total production capacity of 3.02 million tons/year, resulting in a loss of 143,000 tons. In August, eight phenol-acetone production units underwent maintenance, affecting a total production capacity of 2.12 million tons/year, resulting in a loss of approximately 130,000 tons. In September, Sinopec Mitsui, Shenghong Refining and Chemical, and Longjiang Chemical all underwent maintenance, resulting in a month-on-month increase in downtime losses.

By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the phenol acetone industry is expected to have two new production facilities commissioned in the fourth quarter, with a total capacity of 650,000 tons. These new facilities are primarily concentrated in Northeast China and North China, namely at Jilin Petrochemical and Zibo Ruilin. Overall phenol acetone supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, increasing by 9% month-over-month to 2.26 million tons. The timing of the new facilities' commissioning is uncertain and will require continued monitoring.

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