In 2025, the domestic acetone market entered a period of profound adjustment, with market prices throughout the year showing a weak trend of "volatile decline and continuous bottoming out." According to data monitored by SunSirs, by the end of 2025, the cumulative annual decline in the domestic acetone market reached 32.37%. Prices continuously fell from a high of 5,992 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, with mainstream market quotations in East China falling to around 4,050 RMB/ton by the end of the year, reaching the lowest level in nearly six years. This significant decline was the inevitable result of multiple factors, including supply-demand mismatch under the industry expansion cycle, weakened cost support, and negative feedback from the industrial chain, which had a profound impact on the upstream and downstream industrial ecosystem of acetone.

The domestic acetone market price trend in 2025 can be divided into three distinct downward phases, with a continuous and gradually widening decline throughout the year. The first phase, from the beginning of the year to the end of the second quarter, was a "slow decline period." Due to weaker-than-expected demand recovery after the Spring Festival, market prices gradually fell from 6,300 RMB/ton in January to 5,500 RMB/ton at the end of June, a cumulative decline of 12.69% over the half-year. Market transactions were mainly driven by essential demand, and traders maintained a cautious attitude. The second phase, the third quarter, was a "rapid decline period." The traditional "golden September" peak season failed to materialize, coupled with a surge in imports leading to increased inventory, causing prices to plummet to 4,800 RMB/ton. The decline in the third quarter alone was 12.73%, resulting in widespread losses across the industry for the first time. The third phase, the fourth quarter, was a "low-level fluctuation period," with prices fluctuating within a narrow range of 4,000-4,300 RMB/ton. Although there were signs of temporary stabilization, due to insufficient support from supply and demand fundamentals, the price ultimately settled at 4,050 RMB/ton at the end of the year, with the cumulative annual decline officially reaching 32.37%.

Supply side: The concentrated release of production capacity, coupled with imports, set the stage for a loose supply situation

In 2025, the domestic acetone industry remained in the late stages of a rapid expansion cycle, with the concentrated release of new capacity becoming the core source of pressure on the supply side. According to statistics, the net increase in domestic acetone capacity in 2025 was 510,000 tons/year, bringing the total capacity to over 4.48 million tons/year. Specifically, a 200,000 tons/year plant in Shandong and a 60,000 tons/year plant in Zhejiang successfully commenced operations from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, directly leading to a 15%-20% increase in market supply in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, the elimination of outdated capacity did not meet expectations, with only 100,000 tons/year of outdated capacity from Yanshan Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical being eliminated throughout the year, having a limited impact on alleviating supply pressure. The continuous influx from the import market further exacerbated the oversupply situation. Acetone imports remained high throughout 2025; in December alone, the volume of imported cargo at East China ports reached 50,000 tons, of which 26,000 tons had successfully arrived, and 24,000 tons were still in transit. Port inventories remained at a relatively high level of 24,000 tons, effectively filling the temporary gaps in domestic supply. Even though some domestic phenol-acetone plants entered their traditional maintenance season, and operating rates temporarily dropped to the second lowest point of the year at 65%, the maintenance periods were generally short (15-20 days), and companies had prepared inventory in advance, failing to fundamentally change the basic oversupply situation.

Demand side: Downstream transmission was weak, and support from core consumer sectors was insufficient

The continued weakness in downstream demand for acetone, with core downstream industries generally facing supply-demand imbalances, had resulted in acetone procurement only meeting basic needs. While the bisphenol A industry, the largest consumer of acetone, was still in an expansion phase in 2025, its operating rate remained low due to weak demand from the downstream polycarbonate and epoxy resin industries. Procurement of acetone was limited to replenishment as needed, failing to provide significant impetus. Although its consumption share remained stable at around 36%, the absolute demand growth rate had slowed to 0.8%. The second largest downstream industry, the acetone cyanohydrin method MMA industry, also showed weak performance. Affected by the slower-than-expected expansion of the new energy photovoltaic module and high-end display industries, the growth rate of acetone demand had significantly decreased compared to previous years. The MIBK industry, facing increasing supply-demand imbalances, saw prices fell by 300 RMB/ton compared to November, with strong downward pressure from downstream buyers, further weakening demand for acetone. Furthermore, the traditional solvent sector continues to experience shrinking demand due to stricter environmental policies and the impact of substitute products. The weak performance across multiple industries created a cumulative effect, resulting in a persistent lack of growth momentum in the acetone market.

Cost side: Raw material prices were weakening, significantly reducing cost support

For acetone producers, non-integrated companies have been hit the hardest, with sustained losses leading to involuntary reductions in operating rates and a gradual shift of market share towards integrated companies. By 2025, the vertical integration rate of domestic acetone production capacity had increased to 71%. Integrated companies, leveraging their advantages in pipeline transportation costs and the ability to offset profits across upstream and downstream operations, demonstrate significantly stronger risk resistance. However, a decline in overall industry profitability remained inevitable.

The following were the acetone price quotations in major markets across the country:

Market Outlook

According to SunSirs, the domestic acetone market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in early 2026, with limited upward price potential. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol-acetone plants is expected to increase slightly, coupled with the concentrated arrival of imported shipments at the end of 2025, potentially pushing port inventories to 28,000-30,000 tons, further highlighting the pressure of ample supply. On the demand side, operating rates in core downstream industries such as bisphenol A and MMA are unlikely to see substantial improvement, and the solvent industry will continue to purchase on a need-basis, lacking incremental demand support. On the cost side, the raw material benzene and propylene markets are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, failing to provide effective cost support. The main resistance to price decline will come from traders' reluctance to sell at low prices. The spot price in East China is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,050-4,100 RMB/ton.

In summary, the cumulative decline of 32.37% in the domestic acetone market in 2025 is a concentrated manifestation of the supply-demand imbalance during the industry's expansion cycle. In the short term, the industry will continue to face profit pressure, and companies need to focus on inventory control and cost management; in the long term, with the optimization of the industry structure and improvement of the supply-demand pattern, the acetone market is expected to gradually return to a rational operating range.

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