Cobalt is a critical mineral essential for lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, consumer electronics, and renewable energy storage. Demand has remained stable in 2025, supported by the global push toward electrification, despite economic slowdowns in some regions. However, supply has been constrained by geopolitical factors, mining challenges, and earlier export restrictions in the DRC. The country imposed a cobalt export ban in February 2025, which exacerbated shortages and contributed to price fluctuations throughout the year. In 2024, DRC cobalt exports neared 250,000 tons, setting a high benchmark that the new quota system drastically undercuts, signaling a deliberate effort to regulate strategic minerals and potentially boost domestic value addition.

Details of the DRC's New Export Quota System

On September 21, 2025, the DRC's Strategic Minerals Market Regulation and Control Authority announced the termination of the February export ban effective October 15, 2025. From October 16 onward, exports will transition to a quota-based regime until further notice. Key provisions include:

2025 Remainder: Mining companies are permitted to export over 18,000 tons for the rest of the year.

2026 and 2027 Annual Limits: A maximum of 96,600 tons per year.

Allocation Mechanism: Quotas will be distributed proportionally based on companies' historical export volumes, with individual notifications to firms.

Outlook and Recommendations

Looking ahead, cobalt prices are likely to maintain a volatile upward trajectory in the medium term, driven by the quota-induced shortages. However, the bullish outlook is cautious: gains may be capped as markets adapt through alternatives and increased production elsewhere. By Q4 2025 and into 2026, prices could stabilize in the 280,000-290,000 CNY/ton range if demand holds firm, but external shocks—such as trade policies or economic recessions—pose downside risks.

For stakeholders:

Buyers and Manufacturers: Monitor DRC quota allocations closely and diversify sourcing to mitigate supply risks.

Investors: Focus on cobalt-related equities and futures, but hedge against substitution trends.

Policymakers: The DRC's move highlights the need for global cooperation on critical minerals to ensure sustainable supply chains.

In summary, the DRC's quota system marks a pivotal shift toward controlled exports, reinforcing cobalt's strategic importance while injecting uncertainty into the market. While short-term price rises are probable, long-term sustainability will depend on innovation and geopolitical stability.

According to Sunsirs' Cobalt Commodity Market Analysis System: On September 22, the cobalt price was 278,100 CNY/ton, showing a volatile increase compared to 272,300 CNY/ton on September 17, with a rise of 2.13%.

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