According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PP market in China fluctuated in September, with prices of various brand products falling more and rising less. As of September 17th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7,113.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of -0.93% compared to the price level at the beginning of September.

In terms of raw materials: In early September, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East remained calm, and market concerns about crude oil supply decreased. At the same time, the OPEC+production increase strategy has continued to this day, and seasonal demand has synchronously declined, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at low levels. In the early stage, the price of propylene was boosted by the maintenance news from Haiwei, but due to sufficient supply on site, the resistance to price increase was relatively high. In addition, the limited follow-up and improvement of downstream demand has resulted in some rebound in recent gains. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials are weak in supporting costs.

Supply side: In September, the operating rate of PP enterprises in China was significantly reduced. On the 11th, the first line of Yulong Petrochemical and some units in Shaoxing SanRMB underwent maintenance. As of press time, the overall load level of the domestic industry has dropped from 80% in the first half of the year to around 75%, and the weekly average total production has fallen below 790,000 tons. However, in recent days, some production lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical have completed the restart, coupled with the production of 450,000 tons of the first line of the 900,000 ton new production line of Ningbo Daxie Phase II in the early stage. The trend of loose market supply is clear, which seriously limits the support strength of the supply side. At present, the on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory level remains significantly high at 830,000 tons. Overall, the PP supply side has poor support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: September is in the traditional peak season for polypropylene, and materials used in fields such as plastic weaving and agriculture have improved to a certain extent. The number of new orders on the market is gradually increasing, and the market momentum is on the rise. However, the positive trend of improved trading atmosphere in the current market has been smoothed out by many negative factors. In addition, the overall slow recovery of downstream enterprise load has led to a delay in the start of PP peak season consumption, and has also discounted the support for the demand side.

In September, the PP market in China was mainly characterized by price fluctuations. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream raw material market is weak, and the overall support for PP is not good. The industry load is expected to remain high with a narrow adjustment, and there are expectations of loose supply in the future. Although there has been an improvement in consumption, the market is being dragged by the cost and supply sides. The current seasonal speculative atmosphere in the market is being suppressed, and it is expected that PP may continue to operate in a stalemate in the short term.

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