The coal stockpiles at northern ports have repeatedly hit new lows in September, and in the later period, the coal stockpiles at ports may not improve due to factors such as the inversion of the shipping spread and the tightening of coal production in the main producing areas. The coal stockpiles at northern ports may continue to operate at a low level since the beginning of the year. As the coal prices stabilize, the demand for speculative bottom-fishing may also increase, and the demand side is expected to provide more support to the market.

From late August to early September, domestic coal market prices continued to decline under pressure. According to Zhongchuang Information, as of September 3, the ex-factory price of Q6000 thermal coal in Yulin was 540-555 RMB/ton, a decrease of 32.5 RMB/ton from the highest price in August, a decrease of 5.6%.

Looking ahead to September, domestic coal production is expected to be limited, but coal demand may weaken initially before increasing, and the supply and demand balance in the domestic thermal coal market is expected to ease initially before tightening, which could lead to a rebound in thermal coal prices after a decline.

Specifically, the supply and demand pattern of the domestic coal market in September may be relatively loose at first and then become tighter, specifically manifested in:

From a policy perspective, the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Notice on Optimizing Coal Production Supply and Promoting the Steady Operation of the Coal Market", in which it was mentioned that coal production enterprises within the province are required to improve their political position, fully understand the potential risks that may arise from the continuous decline in coal prices, and the competent authorities of the coal industry should further strengthen the monitoring of coal production and supply, guide coal production enterprises to reasonably arrange production according to market demand, and strictly organize production within the legal capacity, and coal enterprises that exceed their production capacity should be ordered to rectify in accordance with the relevant provisions of capacity management.

As one of the four major coal-producing bases in China, Shaanxi Province has a coal production ranking among the top three in the country. This notice has significant guiding significance for coal mine production in the region. At the same time, other coal-producing bases may also issue similar production management measures for coal enterprises, further promoting the rational production of coal mines in the region, and thus balancing the supply and demand relationship in the coal market.

In addition, domestic policies such as "anti-internal folding" and "anti-overtime" will continue in September, which will also play a certain role in restricting coal mine production.

From the supply side, the increase in domestic coal supply in September is limited. At the beginning of the month, the main factor affecting the coal production is the important activities in China, and the coal mines are relatively cautious in production. However, as the monthly task is completed in the second half of the month, some coal mines will gradually suspend production and sales. At the same time, October is the long holiday of the "Double Festival" in China, and the safety awareness of coal mine production is relatively strong. Overall, the increase in domestic coal production in September is limited.

In terms of coal stockpiles in the transfer link, the coal stockpiles in northern ports have been continuously创 record low in September, and in the later period, the coal stockpiles in ports may not improve due to factors such as the inversion of the shipping spread and the tightening of coal production in the main production areas. The coal stockpiles in northern ports may maintain the low level since the beginning of the year. As of September 3, the coal stockpiles in the three northern ports were 20.35 million tons, a decrease of 10.74 million tons, a decrease of 34.54% from the highest point of coal stockpiles in the current year. Overall, the increase in domestic coal supply in September is limited.

Finally, from the demand side, the current domestic thermal coal market price has not yet stopped falling, the market transaction sentiment is weak, and the limited purchasing demand for coal is mainly to maintain the essential demand, and the general resistance to high prices. At the same time, there is a situation of production and shutdown in some industrial enterprises in Beijing's surrounding provinces and cities at the beginning of September, which limits the release of coal demand, and the overall demand side does not support the market.

After entering the middle and late part of September, as the domestic long holiday approaches, some coal-consuming enterprises have a certain demand for stockpiling before the holiday, and at the same time, traders are not pessimistic about the medium and long-term market situation, believing that the policy bottom of coal prices has appeared, and the spiral rise of coal prices is the main trend in the later period, and the demand for speculatively bottom-fishing will also increase after the coal price stabilizes, and the demand side is expected to support the market. Overall, although the coal demand in September showed a weakening trend at first, there is a later growth expectation.

To sum up, in September, coal mines in the main producing areas generally produce according to the approved capacity, and the awareness of production safety is strong, which limits the increase in domestic coal production; on the demand side, although the demand was limited in the first ten days of September, as the Double Festival holiday approaches in the middle and late ten days, the demand for stockpiling before the holiday is expected to increase, and the demand from traders is also expected to increase. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of the domestic coal market may be loose at first and then tight, and the coal price may have the possibility of rebounding after a fall.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices; On September 11th, the benchmark price of thermal coal by SunSirs was 723.75 RMB per ton, a decrease of 6.31% compared with the beginning of this month (772.50 RMB per ton).

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