Early last week, the manganese silicon market consolidated, with futures dragging down spot prices. Market sentiment remained subdued as major steel mills slightly lowered their tender pricing, though trading activity remained moderate. By Friday, the market strengthened as futures prices rose and factory production remained stable.

According to SunSirs commodity analysis data, manganese silicon quoted around CNY 5,600-5,750/ton in Ningxia (FeMn68Si18 specification) by last weekend, with an average market price of CNY 5,676.00/ton—a slight 0.67% increase from the week's start.

I. Influencing Factors

Supply Side: Factory production remained relatively stable last week with no widespread increases or decreases in output. Some high-silicon manganese factories in Inner Mongolia are expected to start production around mid-month, while others planning new capacity in October may delay start-ups—specific dates subject to actual conditions. Future production has room for growth. Shanxi and Shaanxi maintained low operating rates, while Ningxia production remained stable. Factory order fulfillment cycles are nearing completion, with most players adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Yunnan operates at high capacity but currently operates near breakeven. Post-October, production cuts are expected to increase as the market enters a flat-price period. Guizhou plants report implementing differential electricity pricing policies, though specific enforcement details remain unconfirmed. Implementation is likely to commence next year, potentially elevating capacity elimination risks in Guizhou.

According to statistics, last week's national manganese silicon production capacity utilization rate was 46.45%, down 0.55% from the previous week. Average daily output was 30,405 tons, a decrease of 80 tons.

Incomplete statistics indicate that as of September 5, national manganese silicon inventories totaled 160,500 tons, up 11,500 tons from the previous period. Breakdown: Guangxi: 5,000 tons, up 1,000 tons; Guizhou: 4,500 tons, up 500 tons; (Shanxi, Gansu, Shaanxi): 3,500 tons, unchanged; (Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing): 4,000 tons, up 1,000 tons.

Upstream Cost Side: The manganese ore market remains weak, with transaction prices softening by approximately 0.5 RMB/ton. Earlier port pickup difficulties led to sparse market transactions, and current transaction prices lack reference value. As ports gradually resume operations, market inquiries are increasing. However, downstream silicomanganese futures prices have weakened, and factories show poor acceptance of manganese ore prices, pushing inquiry prices lower.

Current port arrivals show no significant pressure in the near term. September's nationwide manganese ore arrivals decreased compared to August. Downstream factories currently maintain solid production rates. It is anticipated that from mid-September onwards, factory restocking activities will drive an increase in port shipments.

Data indicates current prices at Tianjin Port: Australian manganese ore lumps at 39.5-40.5 RMB/tonne, semi-carbonate manganese ore at 34 RMB/tonne, and Gabon manganese lumps at 39.5-40 RMB/tonne. At Qinzhou Port, Australian manganese ore lumps are quoted at 40-41 RMB/tonne, semi-carbonate ore at 36.5-37 RMB/tonne, and Gabonese manganese lumps at 40 RMB/tonne.

In the international market, South 32's October 2025 manganese ore quotes for China were announced: Mn42% Australian manganese ore (lump) is quoted at $4.50 per tonne of manganese (CIF major Chinese ports), a slight increase of $0.05 per tonne of manganese compared to September's price; Mn37% South African semi-carbonate manganese ore (lump ore) was quoted at $4.1/ton-degree (CIF major Chinese ports), a slight increase of $0.05/ton-degree compared to September.

Demand: A group's latest silicomanganese alloy tender results were announced, including: Delivery to Jiangsu: CNY 5,760/mt for 500 mt;

Delivery to Anhui: CNY 5,760/mt for 500 mt;

Delivery to Yunfu: CNY 5,800/mt for 1,600 mt;

All prices are cash inclusive of tax.

Separately, Longteng Special Steel plans to tender 4,000 mt of silicomanganese alloy, with bidding closing at 10:00 on September 5. Rizhao Steel plans to tender 1,000 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the quotation deadline set for September 8 at 14:00.

A steel mill in Yunnan has tendered silicomanganese alloy at a price of 5,730 RMB/ton, with a procurement volume of 1,500 tons, payable by acceptance draft, tax-inclusive, delivered to the mill. A Henan steel mill is tendering for 4,000 tons of silicomanganese alloy at a price of 5,730 RMB/ton, with payment terms of cash delivery to the factory including tax, subject to discount basis.

II. Market Outlook

Overall, the persistent decline in mainstream steel procurement prices has weakened traders' confidence in stockpiling. Concurrently, the supply side of silicomanganese continues to expand, exacerbating the market's supply-demand imbalance. However, cost constraints on manganese silicon prices persist. Although mills are gradually fulfilling earlier orders in the short term, inventory pressure remains manageable for now. As steel procurement demand continues to materialize, SunSirs anticipates the manganese silicon market may stabilize with a slight downward bias in the near term. Market participants should continue monitoring futures trends and demand dynamics.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on September 9, the benchmark price of manganese silicon on SunSirs was 5,688.00 RMB/ton, up 0.21% from the beginning of this month (5,676.00 RMB/ton).

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Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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