According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in August first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2,435 RMB/ton on September 2 and 2,390 RMB/ton on August 1, with a monthly increase of 1.88%.

Cost wise: Since August, international crude oil prices have weakened, and the monthly average price has been decreasing for two consecutive months. The main negative factors for the decline in oil prices in August are the firm stance of OPEC+ on increasing production, which has created a negative atmosphere, and the United States' push for Russia Ukraine peace talks, resulting in a significant easing of the geopolitical situation.

Supply side: In early August, the transaction of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was good, and downstream carbon enterprises stocked up and replenished their inventory. In addition, the low inventory of petroleum coke in refineries led to a continuous rise in petroleum coke prices; In mid to late August, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and refinery prices continued to decline; The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises for petroleum coke procurement is generally low: downstream aluminum carbon mainly maintains the essential demand for petroleum coke, the negative electrode material market mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand, and graphite electrode enterprises have low production enthusiasm and limited procurement of petroleum coke. In mid to early August, the production of petroleum coke at ports was active, and port inventories continued to decrease. Southwest silicon companies started construction one after another, which was favorable for Formosa Plastics' coke production; In the latter half of the month, the shipment of petroleum coke from the port was still acceptable, and the spot goods at the port increased, resulting in a slight decline in coke prices.

On the demand side: In August, silicon companies in Xinjiang resumed production, which led to a slight increase in overall production and supply. In mainstream regions, the operating rate of Northwest China ranks first with a reference of around 76%, followed by Yunnan where the operating rate remains at around 68%, and Xinjiang and Sichuan where the operating rate of metal silicon is around 56-57%. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

The domestic production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.035 million tons (close to the industry limit), with limited short-term growth; Some enterprises have reduced production (Shandong Weiqiao reduced production by 500,000 tons, Qinghai Zhonglv reduced production by 400,000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum plans to resume production of another 50,000 tons within this year). Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke is supporting the petroleum coke market, and a new round of pricing adjustments for downstream pre baked anodes is positive for market sentiment. It is expected that petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

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