The latest statistical data from the National Energy Administration shows that in the first three quarters, 310 million kilowatts of renewable energy were added, with solar energy accounting for 240 million kilowatts. However, as the applause died down, the alarm went off. With the implementation of the policy "On Further Deepening the Reform of the Power System and Accelerating the Construction of a New Power System" (hereinafter referred to as "Document No. 136"), two major problems, "difficulties in consumption" and "low returns", have arisen before the photovoltaic people. When the speed of power generation exceeds the speed of grid consumption, and when the returns on investment are squeezed by policies and markets, what do we rely on to continue forward?
Photovoltaics faces the problems of difficult consumption and low returns
The expansion momentum of China's renewable energy is setting records at an unprecedented pace. The latest data from the National Energy Administration shows that the total installed capacity of renewable energy in China is approaching the 2.2 billion - kilowatt mark, with the combined installed capacity of wind power and solar power exceeding 1.7 billion kilowatts. In the first three quarters of this year alone, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy in the country reached as high as 310 million kilowatts, surging by 47.7% year - on - year, accounting for 84.4% of all newly installed capacity. Solar power, with a new increment of 240 million kilowatts, has become the absolute main force.
However, beneath this bustling scene, the industry is facing a severe reality test. On one hand, the rapid development of installed capacity is putting tremendous pressure on the grid's consumption capacity. On the other hand, policy adjustments and market changes are continuously compressing the profit margin of projects. How to crack the balance dilemma between "increment" and "efficiency enhancement" has become a bottleneck that China's photovoltaic industry must cross to transition from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development".
Especially after the No.136 document clearly requires power market transactions and strengthens the responsibility for new energy consumption, the traditional "full-grid" model is facing severe challenges.
" "The intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power generation are the core pain points," Li Huaibo, person in charge of Galaxy Electric of Huakun Group, told reporters from China Energy News. "During the day when there is sufficient sunlight, the photovoltaic power generation on the roofs of Huakun's parks is abundant, but the enterprise load often fails to fully consume it, resulting in 'abandoned light' waste; at night or on rainy and cloudy days, photovoltaic power generation drops sharply, and we need to purchase expensive electricity from the grid, leading to high electricity costs."
Take Shandong as an example, the maximum summer load exceeds 100 million kilowatts. If the power generation is matched with the maximum load, the photovoltaic power generation in spring and autumn far exceeds the demand, and the phenomenon of abandoned photovoltaic power is serious; while in winter, when the load rises, photovoltaic power cannot meet the demand, and enterprises still need to rely on the grid, forming an awkward situation of "more photovoltaic power is generated than can be used, and when it is not enough, it has to be bought".
Zhang Xiaobin, director of the Photovoltaic Professional Committee of the Shandong New Energy Industry Association and deputy director and secretary general of the Shandong Solar Energy Industry Association, told the reporter of China Energy News that under the market-oriented electricity price mechanism, the income from surplus electricity is affected by factors such as time-of-use electricity prices, system operation fees, and capacity fees, and the economy is far lower than self-use. The traditional "pure photovoltaic" model is difficult to adapt to the requirements of the new power system, and the industry urgently needs to find a way to improve the ability to consume and stabilize the income.
Energy storage becomes the key solution to break the dilemma of photovoltaic consumption.
Since the 2024 Government Work Report first included "developing new energy storage" in the national strategy, the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy" has also clearly required "mining the regulation potential of new energy storage" and promoting the "photovoltaic + storage" from "optional configuration" to "must-have".
"The more solar power there is, the more electricity is generated by photovoltaic power generation, and the more anxious I am." Li Huaibo's words reveal the concerns of many industrial parks. As a "big user" of electricity with 120MW of photovoltaic installed capacity, Huaqin once faced the typical "photovoltaic consumption dilemma": during the day when the sunlight is sufficient, the amount of photovoltaic power generation far exceeds the load of the park, and a large amount of green electricity can only be abandoned; during the peak load period in winter, the photovoltaic power is insufficient, and it is only possible to purchase electricity at a high price.
"Especially after the introduction of No. 136, the market-oriented electricity price mechanism has made this issue more prominent," Li Huai po said candidly. The cost stacking of time-of-use electricity prices, system operation fees, capacity fees, etc., makes the economics of selling surplus electricity to the grid far less attractive than self-use. How to ensure that "all the electricity generated by photovoltaics is used, and all the electricity used is the most economical"? Huaqin's choice is: energy storage.
In October 2024, the 30MW/60MWh energy storage system of Ningde Times was grid-connected in the park. The 6 sets of liquid-cooled energy storage units, like 6 "giants charging batteries", absorbed the surplus photovoltaic power during the day and released it during the peak hours at night. The data is the most convincing: the photovoltaic self-consumption rate increased from 80% to 92%, and the maximum annual photovoltaic consumption can be increased by 21.6 million kWh; through peak-valley arbitrage, the annual electricity cost can be reduced by 10 million yuan. At the same time, combined with the multi-energy complementarity of thermal power and biomass power plants, the energy self-sufficiency rate of the park reached 92%, reducing carbon emissions by 12,500 tons per year, which not only meets the carbon reduction needs of export enterprises but also significantly reduces production costs. Now, the photovoltaic power generation in Huqin Industrial Park is basically "fully utilized".
Speaking of why NIO chose Ningde Times, Li Huai po did the math for the journalists: a storage system has to operate for more than 10 years. If the battery cells are of poor quality, leading to rapid degradation or even safety accidents, "the cost saved may not even cover the tip of the iceberg". The battery cells for the Huaqin project have undergone a full life cycle quality control, and the liquid cooling system ensures that the temperature difference is controlled within 3℃. Daily charging and discharging cycles are required, and without solid technology, it simply cannot withstand.
"The energy storage industry did not go through a blue ocean profit period, but directly into a red ocean competition. The hidden dangers of low-priced and low-quality products from small manufacturers are very large," Zhang Xiaobin believes. The practice of Huaqin project has proved that energy storage is not only a technical means to solve the problem of photovoltaic consumption, but also a core support to improve the economic performance of the project and achieve green transformation. "In the future, photovoltaic enterprises may not be 'photovoltaic enterprises', but ' comprehensive energy service providers'. Huaqin's exploration is a miniature of this trend. It not only solves its own consumption problem, but also provides a replicable model for more than 500 similar parks across the country."
Photovoltaic energy storage should be based on the premise of "safety and reliability".
The core value of energy storage systems lies in their long-term stable operation, and in the photovoltaic storage scenario, equipment needs to withstand high-frequency charging and discharging cycles every day, with extremely high requirements for safety, lifespan, and degradation rate. In the interview, the industry consensus is that large-brand energy storage has become an inevitable choice for the upgrading of the photovoltaic industry.
"The current energy storage industry has not yet experienced the blue ocean benefit period, and has directly entered the red ocean competition. Some small manufacturers are competing for the market with low-quality and low-priced products, which poses a serious safety hazard." Li Huai po suggested that photovoltaic enterprises need to break away from the "only cost" mentality when choosing energy storage partners, and place safety, brand reputation, and technical adaptability at the top priority: choose large brands with scale strength and technical accumulation as the priority to ensure that the energy storage system and the photovoltaic power station and park load are deeply coordinated, so as to truly achieve the value maximization of "light storage 1 + 1>2".
After document No.136, the photovoltaic industry is transforming from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development". Energy storage, as the core means to solve the problem of consumption and improve economic efficiency, has become a "must-answer question" for the industry to upgrade.
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