Price trend

At the beginning of this month, the silicomanganese market consolidated at a high level, with the spot market fluctuating widely in line with the futures market. In August, steel prices rose month-on-month, with some prices increasing by 300-400 RMB/ton. In the middle and late part of the month, silicomanganese futures prices fell significantly, and the market saw fewer spot quotes, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and spot prices also fell accordingly. According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, at the end of this month, the market quote for silicomanganese (specification FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was around 5,600-5,750 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,704.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the beginning of the month.

Factors affecting the growth

Silicomanganese production continued to recover

This month, due to some profit margins at factories, market operating rates continued to rise. This was most evident in Ningxia, northern China, where some high-silicon production was being converted to standard silicon production. Inner Mongolia saw relatively active production starts, with new capacity coming online next month, and output is expected to continue to increase.

In southern China, production has increased slightly. Factories in Guizhou recently resumed operations, and output was gradually increasing. Yunnan offered favorable electricity prices and lower costs, and some factories had started new furnaces, leading to continued production increases. Most factories were operating on a production schedule, with minimal inventory pressure.

Since August, weekly silicomanganese production at sample companies has continued to rebound, increasing from 186,500 tons to 211,200 tons, a 3.5% increase. As of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of silicomanganese companies in the latest week was 46.37%, a 0.62% increase from the previous week. Daily output averaged 30,170 tons, an increase of 590 tons. Inner Mongolia's daily output rose month-over-month to 14,810 tons; Ningxia's daily output rose to 7,090 tons; Yunnan's daily output remained stable at 2,550 tons; Guizhou's output rose significantly month-over-month to 1,635 tons; and Guangxi's output rose month-over-month to 1,270 tons.

Weekly ferrosilicon production continued to increase, and operating rates were also improving. However, ferrosilicon inventories had not accumulated at the company level, and were even being reduced slightly. Ferrosilicon inventories had fallen from 205,000 tons to 156,000 tons. According to incomplete statistics, as of August 22, national ferrosilicon inventories at companies stood at 156,000 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month. This includes Inner Mongolia, which held 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous month; Ningxia, which held 95,000 tons, unchanged; Guangxi, which held 4,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous month; Guizhou, which held 5,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous month; Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi, which held 3,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 200 tons; and Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing, which held 3,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 500 tons.

Manganese ore prices dipped slightly

Pilbara Ports, Australia's largest exporter, recently released its statistics for July 2025, showing that 181,600 tons of manganese ore were exported through Port Hedland, a month-on-month increase of 16.19% and a year-on-year increase of 17.87%. From January to July this year, Australia's total manganese ore exports through Port Hedland were 771,374 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.37%.

As of August 22, 2025, total manganese ore port inventories stood at 4.466 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. Tianjin Port saw an increase to 3.714 million tons, still below the same period last year, while Qinzhou Port saw a decrease to 747,000 tons, slightly above the same period last year. Overall, there was a significant divergence in inventory levels between the north and south. Tianjin Port held 2.588 million tons of South African ore, a slight decrease. Gabonese ore, at 363,000 tons, saw a slight decrease from the previous month. Australian ore, at 249,000 tons, continued to accumulate slightly. Inventories of high-quality, mainstream oxide ores were all below the same period last year.

The quotation of manganese ore at the port was relatively stable. The Gabon block at Tianjin Port was 39.7 RMB/ton, the Australian block was 40.5 RMB/ton, and the South African semi-carbonate block was 34.7 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of manganese ore was slightly lower than the quotation.

On the international market, Eramet Comilog announced its October 2025 manganese ore price for China, with Gabonese manganese ore (lump) with a Mn content of 44.5% being quoted at $4.27 per tonne (CIF, China Main Port), unchanged from September. CML (United Mining) also announced its October 2025 manganese ore price for China, with Australian manganese ore (lump) with a Mn content of 46% being quoted at $4.57 per tonne (CIF, China Main Port), unchanged from September.

Manganese oxide ore and semi-carbonate ore had a certain profit margin, and the spot profit rate of semi-carbonate ore was about to reach the critical value of loss. It is estimated that the cost at the port in September will maintain a slight decline, and the quotation range in October will fluctuate within US$0.1/ton. As the spot ore price gradually drops, the profit of miners will shrink, making it difficult to provide profit margin for silicomanganese production. It is predicted that the decline in manganese ore prices will still be weaker than that of silicomanganese.

Chemical coke prices had seen five rounds of price increases since July 15th, with a cumulative increase of 250 RMB/ton. There was no news of further price increases in August. News of coke production restrictions was emerging near the end of the month, and short-term expectations suggest a stable to stronger performance.

Hot metal production remained high

Recently, the ferrous metals sector strengthened its expectations for production control on the coal supply side. The market's expectations for a contraction in coal supply continued to ferment, which helped to implement seven rounds of coke price increases. Steel mills' profits continued to be under pressure. At the same time, the demand for building materials had accelerated to bottom out, weakening the market's expectation that steel demand was "off-season" since July. Pig iron production remained high, and expectations of supply reduction had subsided. The contradiction between supply and demand on the steel side may accelerate accumulation.

A Yunnan steel mill was bidding for silicon-manganese alloy at 5,800 RMB/ton, with a purchase volume of 1,000 tons, payable in cash including tax to the factory. A Guangdong steel mill was bidding for silicon-manganese alloy at 5,880 RMB/ton, with a purchase volume of 1,000 tons, payable by acceptance including tax to the factory, with a discount.

In August 2025, it is estimated that the national crude steel production will increase slightly to 82 million tons compared with July, corresponding to a demand for silicomanganese of about 754,400 tons. It is estimated that the total national silicomanganese production in August will be around 915,800 tons, and the supply and demand gap of silicomanganese in August will be more than 161,400 tons.

Market outlook

Overall, manufacturers sold forward orders, and in August and September, most manufacturers set production based on sales, maintaining stable production. In particular, factory inventories in Ningxia declined significantly, and the basis for the 01 contract in market basis trade shipments continued to narrow, maintaining support for the bottom market price of silicomanganese. While recent steel tender pricing has declined slightly from its highs, suppliers maintained their bargaining power, and resistance to accepting low prices was strong, making it difficult for steel mills to secure low prices. SunSirs analysts predict that the silicomanganese market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

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