On Thursday, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its monthly report, raising its global corn production forecast for 2025/2026 to 1.299 billion tons, an increase of 23 million tons from the previous forecast and setting a new historical high. The significant increase this time is mainly attributed to the significant increase in the expected corn area and yield in the United States.

IGC's latest estimate is that US corn production will reach 423.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 398.9 million tons, and basically consistent with the US Department of Agriculture's forecast of 425.3 million tons this month, both breaking historical records. The improvement in supply prospects has led to a cumulative decline of about 17% in Chicago corn futures over the past four months, highlighting the suppressive effect of high yield expectations on market prices.

However, IGC emphasizes that demand growth will absorb some of the newly added supply. The global corn consumption forecast has been raised by 13 million tons to 1.285 billion tons, almost offsetting more than half of the new production. The report points out that under record breaking supply and price pressures, global consumption growth is expected to accelerate, and feed demand and industrial use may benefit from a low-priced environment.

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