The Brazil National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) released a production forecast report on Thursday, significantly raising its expectations for Brazilian corn production. This month, CONAB raised its total corn production forecast for 2024/25 to 137 million tons, an increase of more than 5 million tons from the previously predicted 131.73 million tons. This is almost entirely attributed to the bumper harvest of corn in the second season, with its production forecast significantly raised from 104.538 million tons to 109.56 million tons. The first season corn production was slightly increased to 24.936 million tons.

Behind the increase in yield is the synchronous increase in sowing area and yield. The total area of corn is expected to be 21.679 million hectares (21.559 million hectares last month); The area of corn in the first season was 3.772 million hectares (3.771 million hectares last month); The area of second season corn is 17.305 million hectares (17.128 million hectares last month). The estimated yield per hectare is 6.320 tons, higher than last month's forecast of 6.122 tons per hectare.

The impact of the production increase is directly reflected in exports and inventory. CONAB has raised its 2025 Brazilian corn export forecast to 40 million tons, higher than the previous expectation of 36 million tons; The final inventory has been increased from 9.547 million tons to 10.256 million tons, providing a more sufficient buffer for the market.

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