The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 12th. The retail price of refined oil will not be adjusted for the time being. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, six downward adjustments, and three grounding. During this cycle, the crude oil market has risen and fallen, and the crude oil change rate is running at a low level. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 has encountered a "fourth grounding".
Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market has risen and fallen. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.96 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $66.63 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile. On the one hand, OPEC+ announced a cumulative increase in production of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization's exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is affecting the oil market, and global macro data is bearish. Coupled with the fundamental impact of the upcoming off-season for US summer demand, crude oil market prices will continue to be under pressure. As of the 12th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is 0.55%, corresponding to an expected increase of 20 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and diesel, which has not reached the international adjustment red line. Therefore, the retail price of refined oil products will not be adjusted for this round.
In terms of gasoline, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries recently. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries nationwide has risen to around 84%. The supply of refined oil from local refineries has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, and transactions have further been hit. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market.
In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has slightly increased, while the demand side has weakened due to the increase in rainy weather. With the end of summer harvest, agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before. In addition, the diesel inventory in July was 1.1477 million tons, a month on month increase of 11.37%. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal, and the trend of the diesel market has declined.
Looking at the future, negative factors have been dominant in recent times, with the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States coming to an end and supply side risks not eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term, which weakens the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries has increased in the short term, and the supply of refined oil products is loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, and the gasoline market prices have mainly fluctuated and fallen; The demand for diesel has declined compared to before, and diesel prices may continue to decline in the later period.
If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
