According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the 180CST fuel oil market in East China first rose and then fell last week, with a slight overall increase. As of August 8th, the average price of 180CST domestic fuel oil was 5,325.00 RMB/ton (including tax), an increase of 0.24% from the price of 5,312.50 RMB/ton on August 1st.

According to Business News, the international crude oil market has fallen last week, which is bearish for the domestic ship fuel market. The price drop of domestic ship fuel blended raw materials has limited cost support for the domestic ship fuel market; The downstream shipping market has seen a slight increase in coastal freight rates, but ship owners have limited oil replenishment and transactions are mainly driven by essential needs. According to Business News Agency, as of August 8th, the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil in Dalian area of China National Chemical Corporation is 5,520 RMB/ton, and the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,620 RMB/ton; The self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil in the Shanghai area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5,050 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,150 RMB/ton.

The crude oil market prices have fallen last week. The negative factors in the crude oil market, on the one hand, OPEC+ announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization's exit from the plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, which is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is affecting the oil market, and global macro data is bearish. Coupled with the fundamental impact of the upcoming off-season for US summer demand, crude oil market prices will continue to be under pressure.

In terms of international fuel oil, the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG) reported that as of the week ending August 6th, Singapore's fuel oil inventories rose by 1.651 million barrels to 26.319 million barrels, reaching a 33 week high; The inventory of medium distillate oil increased by 215,000 barrels to a three week high of 8.673 million barrels; The inventory of light distillate oil increased by 258,000 barrels to a six week high of 13.006 million barrels.

Market forecast: The recent decline in crude oil prices is bearish for the domestic ship fuel market; The ship supply market and shipping market are mainly driven by urgent needs for transactions, and the market operates cautiously with a strong wait-and-see attitude. At present, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil is 5,100-5,500 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,200-5,600 RMB/ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will experience weak consolidation in the near future.

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