According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from August 4th to 8th, MTBE prices rose from 5,030 RMB/ton to 5,120 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.79% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.91%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.15%. The domestic MTBE market is operating steadily, with prices experiencing a slight increase. Large manufacturers such as Lihua Yi export to the port and currently have no exports, which provides significant support to the market. At the same time, some large manufacturers mainly deliver for export, resulting in a decrease in export volume. Under this support, MTBE manufacturers maintain high prices for shipments.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: international oil prices have significantly fallen, mainly due to negative factors such as OPEC+ production increase bringing negative pressure, temporary easing of geopolitical situation, and continued global economic weakness. As of August 7th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the October contract was $66.43 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures continue to fall, and the refined oil market is weak and declining. The main reason is that the weakness of crude oil has always shrouded the oil market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the oil market. Intermediate traders have a weak intention to place orders, while gas station merchants are mainly in urgent need of replenishment. Therefore, refineries have to lower prices and promote sales due to inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Huizhou Yuxin Heterogeneous Plant has a start-up plan, Shandong Yuhuang Dehydrogenation may have a shutdown plan, and there are sporadic fluctuations in resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on August 7th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.97/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $654.41-656.41/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $794.49-794.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $4.57 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $707.08-707.44 per ton (199.65-199.75 cents per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that the cost price will remain high, and coupled with some large manufacturers still delivering for export, the export volume is not large, so there is a high probability that the market will remain firm and consolidate. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly dominated by strong consolidation.
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