Price trend

According to the SunSirs’ commodity market analysis system, domestic ethanol prices fell to 5,677 RMB/ton from July 28 to August 1, a 0.38% decrease over the period, a 0.38% increase month-on-month, and a 5.58% decrease year-on-year. Domestic ethanol prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with favorable cost factors gradually waning. Supply varied slightly between regions, with both increases and decreases.

Analysis review

On the cost side, corn purchase and sales activity was temporarily average. Deep processing had slightly lowered corn purchase prices, and downstream companies were not very enthusiastic about stocking up. Prices were mainly stable with narrow fluctuations. The impact of ethanol costs was mixed.

On the supply side, edible ethanol production had seen little fluctuation. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan was producing, Jixian was producing on one line, Lahaman was producing, Zhongke Green was producing, Shenglong was shut down, Jilin Dongfeng was shut down, Fukang was shut down, Henan Houyuan was producing, Hanyong was operating normally, Huaxing was shut down, Sichuan Hongzhan was shut down, Huadong Huating, Longhe, Guannan Xinguan, and Luomaite were producing, and Anhui Wanshen and COFCO were producing. The impact on ethanol supply was mixed.

On the demand side, many liquor factories in some regions were shut down, resulting in limited transactions, mostly for chemical consumption. Ethanol demand provided bearish impact for the market.

Future outlook:

In the short term, prices may remain stable, but supply in some regions may impact delivery prices. Ethanol analysts of SunSirs predict that the ethanol market will mainly be consolidated and wait-and-see in the short term.

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