Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber price fluctuated slightly downward in July. As of July 30, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,613 RMB/ton, down 1.81% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

Due to the combined influence of bullish and bearish factors, the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the United States continued, and supply-side risks had not been eliminated. International oil prices will likely remain volatile in the short term. As of July 29, the September contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States settled at $69.21 per barrel, and the September contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $72.51 per barrel.

The domestic PTA spot market exhibited a V-shaped trend in July. As of July 30th, the average PTA price in East China was 4,889 RMB/ton, down 3.79% from the beginning of the month. Crude oil volatility limited cost support in the first half of the month. Anticipated capacity expansion in the PTA industry, coupled with anticipated polyester production cuts, led to a weak supply and demand situation for PTA. However, with improving macroeconomic sentiment and firm commodity prices, the PTA market rebounded.

Multiple factors, including high temperatures and the traditional off-season, hindered demand growth. Downstream yarn mills faced insufficient orders, facing mounting losses and dampening purchasing enthusiasm, with purchases remaining on a strictly necessary basis. However, a rebound in macroeconomic sentiment at the end of the month stimulated buying sentiment, leading to a slight increase in demand.

Future outlook:

Analysts of SunSirs believe that with the recovery of macroeconomic sentiment, a weak rebound in costs, and some restocking at the low end, the inventory pressure on polyester staple fiber factories had eased. However, the outlook for subsequent supply and demand remains weak, with limited upward momentum. It is expected that polyester staple fiber prices in August will continue to fluctuate mainly following the cost side and demand.

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