Price trend

At the end of this month, the positive sentiment of "anti-involution" continued to ferment and the industry expanded. Under the dominance of strong sentiment in the ferrous metal series and the rise in raw material prices, silicomanganese futures prices rose sharply, even reaching the daily limit at one point. The spot price of silicomanganese followed suit, and factories were determined to maintain prices. According to data from the SunSirs’ commodity market analysis system, at the end of this month, the market quotation of silicomanganese (specification FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was around 5,900-6,000 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,920.00 RMB/ton, up 6.94% from the beginning of the month.

Influencing Factors

"Anti-involution", silicomanganese production reduced?

On July 1st, following a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, China launched its first major counter-involutionary campaign, with industries like steel, cement, and photovoltaics all beginning to cut production. On July 26th, a seminar on "Promoting Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in the Industry to Address Vicious Involution" was held in Taiyuan, sponsored by Jiaocheng Yiwang, Tianyuan Manganese, and Dongfang Resources.

The particisopropanolting companies reached a preliminary consensus on several points: First, high-, medium-, low-, and micro-carbon ferromanganese manufacturers will commit to a 30% energy conservation and emission reduction; second, silicon-manganese alloy manufacturers will commit to a 40% energy conservation and emission reduction, reducing pollution emissions, promoting supply and demand balance in China's manganese alloy market, and preventing malicious internal competition. Third, the particisopropanolting large ferroalloy manufacturers had proactively expanded their manganese ore reserves, securing nearly one million tons of raw material.

This month, some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia made minor adjustments to their production loads, resulting in minimal overall output fluctuations and an average daily increase of 150 tons. Manufacturers were experiencing strong shipments and improved profits. A Ningxia plant planned to resume silicomanganese production in July, with plans to restart two submerged arc furnaces, increasing daily output by 350 tons. The specific resumption date is subject to the plant's actual resumption of operations. Southern production areas saw a slight increase in production, with Guizhou resuming operation of four submerged arc furnaces, increasing daily output by 160 tons. Guangxi temporarily had no preferential electricity pricing policy, resulting in low production.

Since July, weekly silicomanganese production at sample companies has increased by 3.5%, from 180,000 tons to 186,500 tons. As of July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of silicomanganese companies reached 41.58%, a 1.05% increase from the previous week. Daily output averaged 26,640 tons, an increase of 520 tons.

Ferroalloy inventories at sample companies continued to decline, but there was no shortage of spot supply. Silicomanganese inventories fell from 222,300 tons to 205,000 tons. According to incomplete statistics, as of July 25, national silicomanganese company inventories stood at 205,000 tons, a decrease of 11,300 tons from the previous month. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 49,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons month-on-month; Ningxia had 130,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons month-on-month; Guangxi had 7,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons month-on-month; Guizhou had 6,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month-on-month; (Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi) had 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons month-on-month; (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing) had 7,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons month-on-month.

Manganese ore market was running strong

South32 released its Q4 report for fiscal year 2025 (Q2 2025): Australia's cumulative manganese ore production in fiscal year 2025 was 1.106 million tons, 111% of the annual plan; South Africa's cumulative manganese ore production was 2.151 million tons, 108% of the annual plan. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Australia's manganese ore production was 467,000 tons and sales were 253,000 tons. Australia's manganese ore production guidance for fiscal year 2026 is 3.2 million tons. The terminal construction was completed in May 2025, and the shipping rate is expected to reach full capacity in the next quarter. South Africa's manganese ore production was 593,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 25% and a year-on-year increase of 11%; South Africa's manganese ore sales were 601,000 tons. It increased by 48% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year. The guidance for South Africa's manganese ore production in fiscal year 2026 remains unchanged at 2 million tons.

Manganese ore prices at ports have been stronger recently, with high-grade and semi-carbonate ore prices both seeing slight increases compared to previous week. As of July 25, 2025, total inventories of major manganese ore varieties at Tianjin Port reached approximately 3.832 million tons, an increase of approximately 243,000 tons from the previous week, but still remaining at the lowest level for the same period. Of this total, inventories of Gabonese and Australian ore totaled approximately 430,000 tons, while oxide ore inventories remained significantly low, indicating a high degree of manganese ore ownership concentration.

Data shows that at Tianjin Port, Australian manganese ore was temporarily priced at 40-41.5 RMB/ton unit, semi-carbonate ore at 34.5-35.5 RMB/ton unit, and Gabon ore at 39.5-40 RMB/ton unit. At Qinzhou Port, Australian manganese ore was priced at 40-40.5 RMB/ton unit, semi-carbonate ore at 35.5 RMB/ton unit, and Gabon ore at 39.5-40 RMB/ton unit.

On the international market, South32 announced a price of $4.05/ton unit (up 0.15) for South African semi-carbonate ore to China, and $4.45/ton unit (up 0.1) for Australian manganese ore, for shipment in September 2025.

Hot metal production remained high

It is reported that blast furnace hot metal levels remained high, electric furnace utilization was also high, and steel mill profits were still acceptable. The blast furnace operating rate at steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year. Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year. The steel mill profit margin was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from the previous week and up 48.49 percentage points year-on-year. Average daily hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, down 2,100 tons from the previous week and up 26,200 tons year-on-year.

Some steel mills continued to receive inquiries, but their bargaining power had weakened due to the high futures market and relatively high supplier bids.

It is reported that a southwest steel mill's latest tender price for silicon-manganese alloy has been set at 5,800 RMB/ton in cash, with a purchase quantity of 1,000 tons. A steel mill in east China has also set its latest tender price for silicon-manganese alloy at 6,050 RMB/ton on acceptance basis, with a discount, for a purchase quantity of 4,500 tons.

Future outlook:

Overall, the rise in silicomanganese prices was mainly due to strong policy expectations and macroeconomic sentiment, as well as rising coal prices on the cost side. At the same time, the fundamental supply pressure of silicomanganese remained a strong constraint. SunSirs’ analysis believes that the silicomanganese market may continue to be strong in the short term.

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