Price trend

Last week, the silicomanganese market was consolidating, with narrow fluctuations and firm factory quotations. It was difficult to find low-priced sources in the market. Mainstream steel mills had raised their bidding prices for silicomanganese, with most steel mills pricing around 5,840RMB/ton, which increased compared to the previous week. As of July 18th, the cost side support was strong, and manganese ore prices were firm. Chemical coke prices had increased by 50 RMB/ton this week, and silicomanganese had performed well. According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the market price of silicomanganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) this weekend was around 5,630-5,700 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,652.00 RMB/ton, slightly increasing by 0.39% compared to the beginning of the week.

Influence factor

On the supply side

There had been little fluctuation in the start of production at the Inner Mongolia factory last week. Some factories that underwent early maintenance had maintained their maintenance status, and there was temporarily no large-scale increase or decrease in production in the production area.

Due to the continuous hovering of the market around 5,800 RMB/ton in the southern region, factories in Guizhou and Guangxi currently had no room for hedging, and the operating rate had not shown significant improvement. Most factories were still in a state of shutdown, and it is stated that the full operating cost was around 5,700 RMB/ton, and we need to wait for the market to rise to around 6,000 RMB/ton before considering resuming production. The cost in Yunnan was temporarily around 5,500 RMB/ton, and factories had a certain profit margin with smooth shipments.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide last week was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02% compared to last week’s previous week; The daily output was 26,120 tons, an increase of 80 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of July 18th, the inventory of silicomanganese enterprises in China was 216,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to the previous month. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 51,500 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period; Ningxia had 135,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to the previous period, while Guangxi had 7,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to the previous period; Guizhou had 7,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, while Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi had 6,300 tons, remaining unchanged. Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing have 9,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period.

Upstream cost side:

The price of chemical coke had increased by 50 RMB/ton last week. Due to insufficient wind power generation, some factories had slightly increased their settlement electricity prices in June, with prices around 0.42-0.43 RMB/kWh. The manganese ore market was operating steadily, with the silicomanganese market rising at the beginning of the week and the sentiment of rising manganese ore prices increasing. The transaction volume of oxidized ore had increased by less than 0.5 RMB/ton degree. As the market falls in the middle of the week, traders' trade sentiment begins to be conflicted, and prices entered a consolidation stage.

According to the data, the price for the Australian block of manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 39.5-41 RMB/ton, for the semi carbonate block it was 34-34.5 RMB/ton, and for the Gabon block it was 38.5-39.5 RMB/ton; Qinzhou Port manganese ore block was priced at 39.5-40.5 RMB/ton degree, semi carbonate was priced at 34 RMB/ton degree, and Gabon block was priced at 39.5-40 RMB/ton degree.

In terms of shipping, the shipping volume from South Africa and Australia was at a high year-on-year level, and Gabon temporarily had no large ships shipped. However, in terms of arrival, the pressure of concentrated arrival of oxidized ore at Tianjin Port in the second half of the month was more obvious. It is expected that the inventory of ore from Gabon and Australia will increase, and the inventory in South Africa is expected to decrease to a certain extent by the end of the month. In the short term, there is temporarily a high level of attention paid to the later arrival situation at the port.

In terms of external market, it is reported that UMK has announced its August 2025 quotation for manganese ore from China, with South African semi carbonate manganese ore quoted at $3.9 per tonne, an increase of $0.05 per tonne compared to the previous round of prices.

In terms of demand:

The bidding price for silicomanganese alloy by Hegang Group in July was accepted at 5,850 RMB/ton, an increase of 250 RMB/ton compared to the inquiry price and an increase of 200 RMB/ton compared to the pricing in June; The purchase quantity this time was 14,600 tons, with a month on month increase of 2,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 500 tons.

The latest bidding price for silicomanganese alloy at a steel plant in East China had been finalized at 5,840 RMB/ton for acceptance, an increase of 140 RMB/ton from the previous round of procurement price, with a purchase quantity of 4,000 tons. The latest bidding price for silicomanganese alloy from another steel plant in East China had been confirmed at 5,840 RMB/ton for acceptance. The latest bidding price for silicomanganese alloy at a steel plant in South China had been finalized at 5,750 RMB/ton for acceptance, with a purchase quantity of 1,000 tons. The latest bidding price for silicomanganese alloy at a steel plant in East China has been finalized at 5,820 RMB/ton for acceptance, with a purchase quantity of 3,000 tons. The latest bidding price for silicomanganese alloy at a steel plant in Central China had been finalized at 5,735 RMB/ton in cash, with a purchase quantity of 3,000 tons. The latest bidding price for silicomanganese alloy at a steel plant in East China had been finalized at 5,800 RMB/ton for acceptance, with a purchase quantity of 800 tons.

According to relevant statistical data, the daily average crude steel production of key steel enterprises in early July 2025 was 2.097 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% month on month and 2.6% year-on-year.

Future outlook:

Overall, steel mills maintained a certain level of enthusiasm for starting production during the off-season, and the macro atmosphere had been continuously recovering recently. Electricity prices had been adjusted in some regions of the north and south, and there had been reports of factories resuming production. There were new additions to production in the north, and the overall supply level remains relatively loose. SunSirs expects the silicomanganese market to continue to operate steadily in the short term and does not currently have the conditions for a significant increase.

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