Market Overview

The acrylic acid market showed a clear trend of regional and category differentiation and upward trend. As of June 25th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in SunSirs was 6,933.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6,850 RMB/ton). Breaking the weeks long bottom stalemate; This pattern of "filling in low price areas and breaking through high price areas" reflected the volatile upward characteristics of the market driven by cost and demand.

Demand side

Substantial improvement was the fundamental driving force behind this round of upward trend. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries had significantly increased: the SAP (high water absorbent resin) industry achieved an operating rate of 82%, an increase of 7 percentage points from May. The turnover days of its raw material refined acid inventory had dropped to 8 days (below the safety line of 15 days), highlighting the urgency of replenishment; The operating rates of water-based coatings and adhesives industries increased to 68% and 65% respectively, with a month on month growth of 5%. The procurement volume of essential needs had been synchronously increased - paint leaders such as Wanhua and Sankeshu had locked in July's refined acid orders, with a month on month increase of 15% in procurement volume. Incremental contribution to export market: Southeast Asian SAP orders increased by 22% in June.

Supply side

The price of raw material propylene continued to rise: as of June 25th, the benchmark price of propylene in SunSirs was 6,900.75 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.54% compared to the beginning of this month (6,538.25 RMB/ton).

Future outlook:

In the short term, the market still has momentum: SAP export orders have been scheduled until late July, and the operating rate will remain at a high level of over 80%; The expected increase in propylene prices above $1,000/ton; Combined with low factory inventory and sufficient pre-sale orders, the bottom support of prices is stable. However, the continued rise of ordinary acid faces resistance: the delivery price of 6,850 RMB/ton of ordinary acid in East China has caused resistance from downstream coating companies (with profit margins compressed), and Shandong Xinyue Chemical's 60,000 tons/year new plant is scheduled for trial production in July, which may suppress the price increase in low-priced areas.

Shandong ordinary acid: expected to operate in the range of 6,700-7,000 RMB/ton in July, with low-priced sources rising but high-end sources under pressure; East China Refined Acid: Supported by export orders, the price range has been raised to 7,400-7,600 RMB/ton; The overall market center: Ordinary acid will fluctuate and consolidate at 6,500-7,000 RMB/ton, while refined acid still has the potential to rise.

In summary, the volatile rise in the acrylic acid market is essentially a structural trend, with the rebound in the low price area relying on cost support and replenishment of essential demand, while the breakthrough in the high price area is driven by high-end export demand. In the next month, the momentum of ordinary acid prices may weaken, and resistance to transactions above 7,000 RMB/ton may appear. However, refined acid will still maintain its strength despite the continued increase in SAP exports.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.