This round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on June 17. This round of refined oil retail prices rose again. The refined oil retail prices in 2025 have experienced four increases, five decreases and two suspensions. The crude oil market has risen sharply in this cycle, and the crude oil change rate is expanding positively. The refined oil retail price in 2025 will encounter the "fifth" increase.

Entering this round of pricing cycle, the international oil price trend is rising. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$71.77/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$73.23/barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices rose sharply. On the one hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to tight crude oil supply and a sharp rise in the international oil market; on the other hand, the Sino-US trade negotiations have made good progress, and the US crude oil inventory has fallen beyond expectations. Positive factors support the international oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly rising. As of the 17th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was 5.81%, corresponding to an expected increase of 260 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 255 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to 0.19 yuan per liter for 89#, 0.20 yuan per liter for 92#, 0.21 yuan per liter for 95#, and 0.22 yuan per liter for 0#. The retail price of refined oil has been raised again in this round.

In terms of gasoline: the operating rate of local refineries has declined slightly recently, with an average operating rate of about 50% for local refineries in Shandong and about 80% for major refineries nationwide, and the supply of refined oil from local refineries has decreased. Recently, there has been an increase in activities such as residents' travel. Under the guidance of this news, most merchants have prepared appropriate stocks. In addition, considering the low inventory level, the gasoline market has risen, but the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles still has a certain impact on gasoline demand.

Diesel: The supply side of the diesel market has decreased slightly recently. In terms of demand, the rigid demand of the terminal has increased. The summer harvest will also start one after another. The increase in agricultural oil consumption supports the rigid demand for diesel. In addition, the pressure on diesel inventory is not great, the enthusiasm of refineries is high, and the infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. The diesel market trend is rising.

In the future market: Supported by recent good news, international oil prices will remain strong in the short term, which will bring certain cost support to the domestic refined oil market. Domestically, the operating rate of refineries has declined in the short term, the supply of refined oil has decreased, and the demand for gasoline is still good, and the gasoline market price is mainly rising; diesel demand is still supported, and diesel prices may continue to rise in the future.

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