According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: the recent lithium carbonate price is still at a historical low price and fluctuates.

As of June 10, the SunSirs benchmark price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 60,066 RMB/ton, down 23.77% from 78,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and 44.15% from 107,600 RMB/ton in the same period last year; the SunSirs benchmark price of domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 58,266 RMB/ton, down 38% from 94,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and 43.43% from 103,000 RMB/ton in the same period last year.

The supply side has stable growth

From the perspective of spodumene: overseas mines have not seen a reduction in production, many mines have achieved cost optimization, and newly commissioned mines in China are still in the stage of increasing production. It is expected that the output of pyroxene will continue to grow.

From the perspective of mica: the price of mica maintains a downward trend, the domestic lithium mica production capacity is steadily released, and the imported ore sources arrive in Hong Kong in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the supply of mica will continue to grow.

From the perspective of salt lakes: domestic salt lakes maintain seasonal high production, overseas credit projects have increased production, and imports have increased steadily.

The demand side has increased the rush to export

With the "two-way loosening" of China-US tariffs, market sentiment has warmed up, and exporters have taken the initiative to destock. The overall performance is better than expected, which supports the price of lithium carbonate. The energy storage market is improving. According to the forecast of the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance (CNESA), the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage in China will grow rapidly from 2024 to 2030. In an ideal scenario, the cumulative installed capacity will reach 313.9GW by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 37.1%; in a conservative scenario, the cumulative installed capacity will reach 221.2GW by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30.4%.

The lithium carbonate data analyst of SunSirs believes that although there is some support on the demand side of lithium carbonate, there is an increase on the supply side, and the overall oversupply situation has not changed. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and specific market changes still need to be paid attention to.

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