1. Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PVC spot market continued the decline of the previous month in May, with a brief rebound in the middle of the month and a return to the downward channel in the second half of the month. As of May 30, the average price of domestic PVC was 4,597 RMB/ton, and the price fell by 1.75% for the whole month.

2. Market analysis

In the early part of this month, the PVC spot market continued the downward trend of the previous month. In the middle of the month, due to the favorable macroeconomic policy expectations, the futures market prices began to rebound, and the spot price followed the rise, but the rebound was only short-lived. In the middle and late part of the month, the market fell into a slump again, and the decline continued until the end of the month.

Specifically, on the one hand, affected by the weakness of upstream crude oil and ethylene, and the suppression of the futures market, the spot PVC market was generally volatile and fell. On the other hand, supply and demand showed certain pressure, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. On the supply and demand side, the operating rate continued to be high, the output increased, and the supply was slightly in excess.

At present, there is still no signal of bottoming out and stabilization in the market. Downstream purchases are mainly based on spot prices, and the enthusiasm for inquiry purchases is not high, and the market atmosphere is weak. The pending order price is low. Overall, it is still dominated by rigid demand, and the trading atmosphere is general.

As of May 30, the mainstream price range of domestic PVC SG5 type calcium carbide is mostly around 4650-4720 RMB/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since May, the price of calcium carbide has continued to decline. According to the data monitored by SunSirs, the decline in calcium carbide since May is 2.44%. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.

3. Forecast for the future market

SunSirs PVC analysts believe that in the short term, the supply and demand of PVC will remain weak, mainly because the factory operating rate continues to be high, and the inventory of enterprises and the market are both high. In addition, after some maintenance, the output continues to rise, and the rainy season arrives in summer, and seasonal demand may be affected to a certain extent. There is also the impact of policy uncertainty in the medium and long term. The pressure on PVC in the later period is still relatively large. It is expected that PVC prices will remain weak in the short term.

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