1. In 2025, PVC production growth will fall short of export growth, yet inventories will rise, indicating a probable decline in domestic demand
From January to November 2025, China's cumulative PVC production reached 22.32 million tons, up 4.37% year-on-year, representing an increase of approximately 940,000 tons. Annual production is projected to reach around 24 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 3%-4%.
Meanwhile, from January to October this year, cumulative caustic soda production stood at 38.241 million tons, rising 4.6% year-on-year. The similar growth rates between the two products indicate the reliability of PVC production growth data.
How about PVC sales? Exports have been particularly strong, with PVC exports increasing by 48.88% year-on-year from January to October, representing an increase of 1.58 million tons.
The export increase of 1.58 million tons exceeds the production increase of 940,000 tons, yet inventories have risen, clearly indicating a decline in domestic sales.
With domestic demand weakening and export demand strengthening, domestic demand may further decline next year amid persistent real estate sector weakness. For exports, India's growing population suggests significant PVC demand growth potential, with exports to India expected to continue rising through 2026.
2. Despite substantial growth in PVC exports, social inventory (1.12 million tons) continues to rise.
When PVC sales face obstacles, inventory ties up increasing amounts of capital. It is natural for companies with insufficient cash reserves to opt for production cuts.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 11th, SunSirs.com benchmark price for PVC was 4322.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.92% compared to the beginning of the month (4452.00 RMB/ton).
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